Clauses & Controversies

Are Sanctions on Venezuela Still Justified? The United States has had sanctions on Venezuela for many years now. The Executive Branch has broad authority to impose sanctions on foreign nations. Basically, there has to be a perception of some foreign threat to the security of the United States. But the main justification for sanctions now is that the Executive Branch wants to stop private creditors from getting their bite of Venezuelan oil assets in American courts. Can a threat produced by the American legal system be a foreign threat justifying sanctions? Seems a bit off, even when courts generally give broad deference to the executive branch on sanctions. Producer: Leanna Doty

Bonds Yields and Elections November is not that far away and the rates of U.S. Treasuries are rising. The Treasury Secretary is trying various strategies (perhaps, with November in mind) to juice the markets and get rates down, but they are not working all that well. What’s going on? What is the relationship between elections and treasury rates? We ask one of the leading experts in the world on this topic, Layna Mosley (who has a fabulous new paper on Brazil, elections and rates). Politicians (at least some of them) better watch out — winter is coming. Producer: Leanna Doty

Ethiopia’s Value Recovery Instruments Value recovery instruments are a great idea in theory and a disaster in practice. The idea is to let investors share in the upside of a country’s recovery. But governments rarely want to pay and the instruments quickly migrate into the hands of investors with little stake in the recovery. Everyone involved looks to exploit loopholes. And since the instruments seemingly are drafted at the last minute, there are plenty of those. But maybe after several tries, Ethiopia has found a way to crack the code? Producer: Leanna Doty

They dig into a surprising $240 billion Venezuelan debt figure and why it shocked observers. They debate who might benefit if claims are inflated, including the possibility of oil companies gaining an edge. They question the credibility of the leak, the absence of an IMF audit, and whether the restructuring will be thorough or merely cosmetic.

Debates over whether Venezuela will restructure its massive debt now and who stands to gain. Historical parallels to 1920s debt deals and how political incentives shape outcomes. Complex tactics like lockboxes, oil majors buying claims, and Qatar-held assets influencing negotiations. Concerns about secrecy, advisor roles, and bypassing IMF oversight.

1917 Tsarist Bonds We know we promised to talk about Venezuela. But we got distracted by a filing in the district courts in DC. A claim for payment on Tsarist bonds from 1917, being made in 2026. How could we pass that up? We also confess to being intrigued that the lawyers for Russia have asked that the judge in DC — Judge Friedrich — give Rule 11 sanctions against the plaintiffs. There are clear potential barriers to this claim on the merits but asking for Rule 11 sanctions on this basis seems a bit rich. Plus, we love the resuscitation of old Tsarist or Imperial bonds. Producer: Leanna Doty

The Most Amazing Revolution In spring 1917, the United States government lent money to the new Provisional Government in Russia, which had promised both domestic reform and to maintain the fight against Germany. Within a few short months, the Bolsheviks took over and repudiated all prior international debt. Still unpaid, the loans have now been in default nearly 150 times longer than they were current. We have talked about these loans before, but not about the repeated attempts (in the 1930s and 1990s) to reach a settlement. Some of the loan proceeds went to efforts to keep the Bolsheviks from power? Did the succeeding governments have to repay those debts? Producer: Leanna Doty

Something Black in the Lentils: We are back with our favorite type of podcast — speculation about legal implications built around facts that are constructed entirely from rumor and innuendo. Weird stuff is going on with the Senegalese yield curve. And we wonder whether the weirdness might relate to Senegal’s desire to avoid triggering margin calls on its TRS contracts (which we'd really like to see). If there is some jiggery pokery going on - perhaps with respect to auctions of the three-year maturity - is that bad faith? Possibly, maybe, kinda sorta. We aren't English lawyers. We're barely even lawyers. But maybe there is something strange afoot. Surely it will all soon be disclosed, especially if Senegal defaults and all these contracts go . . . well . . . Producer: Leanna Doty

A breezy tour of how the U.S. has ended up both owing and being owed after backing losers in foreign civil wars. They flag curious legal fights like Greek GDP warrants and preemptive sovereign suits in English courts. The conversation traces unpaid arms contracts, Iraqi oil controls, Iran claims, and pragmatic tactics from benign neglect to debt write-offs.

If Only YPF’s Bylaws Had Been Governed by Texas Law And… poof! The sound of a $16 billion judgment going up in smoke. We talk about the Second Circuit’s decision in the YPF case, which we read largely as a way to make an excessively large judgment disappear without ruling on any difficult (and recurring) issues of US law. YPF’s shareholders got screwed, but then again their rights were governed by Argentine law. Even in foreign courts, it is hard to win when the sovereign gets to set the rules. We also talk about those fun-lovin’ Texas legislators. Pardner, everything’s bigger in Texas. Except the pre-judgment interest rate. That there is just a whole lot smaller. Has been for 30 some years. Producer: Leanna Doty