The Best Ever CRE Show 4098: Cap Rates, Hiring Trends and the Next CRE Cycle with John Chang
Nov 23, 2025
John Chang delves into the latest jobs report, revealing how healthcare is buoying the economy while other sectors falter due to tariffs. He discusses the implications of policy unpredictability on hiring decisions and warns of recession risks linked to current economic trends. Chang highlights markets that might thrive during downturns and points out promising entry points for investors amid elevated cap rates. He also touches on the unique challenges and opportunities in real estate, particularly in markets like San Francisco.
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Healthcare Is Carrying Job Growth
- Healthcare has been the primary driver of job growth recently while most other sectors stalled after tariffs were announced.
- Without healthcare's 214,000 hires from May–September, overall job creation would have been negative in that period.
Policy Uncertainty Is Freezing Hiring
- Policy uncertainty from shifting tariffs and immigration changes has stalled hiring and business decision-making.
- Firms are replacing essential staff but not expanding payroll because they lack transparency on future costs and rules.
Payroll Revisions Reveal Softer Momentum
- Revisions show earlier months were weaker: July and August payrolls were revised down, leaving recent months close to flat.
- The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.4%, underscoring the softening labor trend.