Trump’s Peace Plan for Ukraine, With Liana Fix and Charles A. Kupchan
Feb 25, 2025
auto_awesome
Liana Fix, a CFR fellow specializing in European security, and Charles A. Kupchan, a CFR senior fellow and expert on international affairs, delve into Trump's evolving policies on Ukraine. They discuss the impact of U.S. foreign policy on European dynamics, including mixed responses to the Ukraine conflict and the challenges of unity among European nations. The conversation highlights potential economic partnerships centered around rare earth elements for Ukraine’s reconstruction, stressing the significance of a unified strategy against Russian aggression.
Trump's evolving policy on Ukraine highlights a strategy that prioritizes U.S.-Russia normalization, potentially compromising Ukrainian sovereignty in negotiations.
European nations are responding with a mix of panic and strategic consolidation as they assess their military and economic support for Ukraine amid U.S. policy shifts.
Deep dives
Trump's Approach to Ending the War
The analysis suggests that Donald Trump's method of negotiating to end the war in Ukraine is largely motivated by a desire to normalize U.S.-Russia relations. Recent events, including a controversial U.S. vote against a UN resolution condemning Russia's invasion, reflect priorities that appear to undermine Ukrainian sovereignty in favor of striking deals with Russia. Trump's approach includes positioning Ukraine as a secondary issue in favor of broader negotiations with Russia, raising concerns about potential concessions from the Ukrainian side. Consequently, European nations are in a state of alarm, contemplating how to react amidst fear that these developments jeopardize Ukraine's standing and security.
European Concerns and Strategies
European reactions to Trump's foreign policy towards Ukraine range from panic to strategic consolidation, as nations grapple with their leverage in the negotiations. The need to support Ukraine militarily and economically is underscored, especially given potential concessions being made by the U.S. that could undermine Ukraine's negotiating position. European leaders are now faced with the challenge of determining how best to strengthen Ukraine while navigating the complexities of U.S. policy shifts. Some proposals even consider utilizing frozen Russian assets to bolster Ukraine, highlighting the urgency of cohesive action among European allies.
Implications of a Reset with Russia
The idea of a reset in U.S.-Russia relations under Trump raises skepticism regarding its feasibility, especially amid ongoing hostilities in Ukraine. Analysts argue that achieving a meaningful reset would require a ceasefire and commitment from Russia to uphold existing territorial lines, conditions that seem unlikely under current circumstances. Trump's concessions, such as discussing NATO membership for Ukraine being off the table, signal a readiness to compromise that could detract from Ukraine's sovereignty. The unfolding situation illustrates a broader historical trend of powers attempting to maneuver through a multipolar world and the challenges associated with establishing a stable and cooperative security architecture.
The Changing Dynamics of International Relations
The geopolitical landscape is shifting towards a world characterized by spheres of influence, challenging the traditional political center's dominance. The discussions reveal a strategic outlook where great powers focus on their neighborhoods, potentially sidelining smaller nations. With Trump's stance and recent developments, there are concerns that the U.S. may not maintain its role as a global arbiter, complicating existing alliances. European nations are beginning to recognize the need for credible military power to uphold their values and interests, signaling a return to a more traditional understanding of power politics and the significant role they must play in their defense.
Liana Fix, CFR fellow for Europe, and Charles A. Kupchan, CFR senior fellow and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, sit down with James M. Lindsay on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to discuss Trump's evolving policy toward Ukraine.