Ending the Ukraine War: A Reset in U.S.-Russia Relations? | Andrea Kendall-Taylor & Michael Kofman
Mar 3, 2025
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Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a senior fellow and director at the Center for a New American Security, and Michael Kofman, a senior research scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses, dive into the intricate negotiations between the U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine war. They discuss the evolving power dynamics within Russia, the significance of casualty reporting, and the implications for European security. The duo also critiques U.S. foreign policy strategies, especially during the Trump administration, while exploring the complex influences of China and nuclear doctrines on global relations.
The U.S. and Russia present contrasting strategies in Ukraine negotiations, with Russia maintaining maximalist demands while the U.S. weakens its leverage.
President Trump's eagerness to conclude the conflict may lead to hasty concessions that compromise Ukraine's sovereignty and embolden Russia.
The use of Riyadh for U.S.-Russia negotiations reflects shifting global diplomacy, highlighting the role of regional powers amid evolving geopolitical dynamics.
Deep dives
Negotiating Positions in the Ukraine Conflict
The current negotiating positions of the U.S. and Russia regarding the Ukraine war highlight contrasting strategies and aims. Russia maintains its maximalist demands, insisting on the full subjugation of Ukraine without any territorial concessions, which were emphasized by Foreign Minister Lavrov following the latest round of talks. In contrast, the U.S. appears to be taking strategic options off the table, including clear statements that Ukraine will not join NATO and that European forces will not operate under NATO auspices in Ukraine. This weakening of U.S. leverage has allowed Russia to increase its demands, which raises concerns about the potential for a resolution that disregards long-term consequences and overlooks established diplomatic frameworks.
Urgency and Motivations Behind U.S. Negotiations
The urgency driving the U.S. government's negotiations with Russia is rooted in a desire to quickly conclude the conflict, primarily due to political pressures and humanitarian concerns. President Trump appears keen on ending the war to bolster his image as a peacemaker, reflecting a strategic interest in securing a favorable legacy. However, analysts argue that this desire may lead to hasty concessions that compromise Ukraine's sovereignty and embolden Russia for future aggressions. Moreover, the lack of a coherent strategy for the U.S. means that interests and alignment with allies are underdeveloped, creating a shaky foundation for realistic negotiations.
Russia's Position and Domestic Constraints
Examining Russia's negotiating position reveals that Putin is unlikely to pursue peace without clear signs of victory or meaningful concessions. The absence of substantial domestic pressure stemming from casualties allows him to remain steadfast in his maximalist demands without fear of internal backlash. While there are economic strains caused by the war, these have yet to undermine his authority or prompt a shift in strategy. Instead, Putin seems to operate under the belief that he has time to achieve his goals without needing to rush into negotiations, reflecting a confidence that the West may be more leverageable than previously understood.
Spheres of Influence and the Broader Implications
The current geopolitical landscape suggests that the U.S. may be moving towards a foreign policy framework focused on spheres of influence rather than collective security. Some analysts propose that this approach allows Russia, China, and the U.S. to operate freely within their designated zones, reshaping global alignments based on realpolitik rather than ideological alliances. This scenario could lead to a renewed form of transactional diplomacy, emphasizing power dynamics over traditional alliances. However, this shift raises significant concerns regarding stability, as the potential for conflict increases where these spheres intersect, ultimately undermining long-term security in Europe and beyond.
The Role of Saudi Arabia in Peace Negotiations
The choice of Riyadh as a negotiation venue for talks between the U.S. and Russia is indicative of shifting diplomacy in the context of global power dynamics. Saudi Arabia's strategic importance as both an oil producer and a neutral party with relations to both the U.S. and Russia offers a unique backdrop for such discussions. Historically, peace negotiations have often taken place in Europe, but those locations are becoming limited due to NATO expansions and diplomatic tensions. Riyadh's emergence as a host for these critical talks underscores the evolving nature of international negotiations and the need for both superpowers to engage with key regional players.
In Episode 403 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Russia and U.S. national security experts Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Michael Kofman about the Ukraine peace talks between the United States and Russia, and whether they are part of a larger vision by the Trump administration to reset American grand strategy and the global order.
Across the first and second hour of the podcast, Taylor, Kofman, and Kofinas discuss:
Ongoing negotiations in Saudi Arabia between the United States and Russia aimed at ending the Ukraine War
Russian factional politics
The future of Europe and European security
U.S.-China relations
U.S., Russian, and Chinese nuclear doctrines
The future of America’s alliance structures
The emergence of a new world order shaped by realpolitik, reciprocity, and a more transactional U.S. foreign policy
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