Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin discusses the current inflation trends in the US economy, questioning if it is a temporary challenge or a new trajectory. He explains his views on policy restrictions and lack of evidence for overheating demand, suggesting a lingering inflation above 2% for longer than expected.
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Quick takeaways
Inflation has exceeded 3%, posing a challenge to the Fed's 2% target.
Monetary policy restrictiveness impacts sectors like housing demand and supply growth.
Deep dives
Tom Barkin's Insights on Inflation Trends and Policy Implications
Tom Barkin discussed the current macro trends in the economy, highlighting robust demand and stubbornly high inflation rates. Despite the strong economy, inflation has remained above 3%, indicating challenges in moderating it back to the target 2%. He emphasized the need to assess various factors like goods price reductions and services inflation to achieve a balanced inflation rate.
Considerations for Monetary Policy and Housing Market Dynamics
Tom Barkin shared insights on monetary policy restrictiveness and its impact on various sectors of the economy, including housing. He discussed the balance between raising rates to control demand and eventually lowering them to stimulate supply growth. Barkin highlighted the immediate impact of higher rates on housing demand and the potential future challenges in housing supply.
Examining the 2% Inflation Target and Its Significance
Tom Barkin delved into the rationale behind the 2% inflation target, emphasizing its global acceptance and past success in maintaining price stability. He discussed the challenges of hitting the target precisely and the risks of deflation, citing examples of technological advancements affecting inflation measurements. Barkin underscored the importance of credibility in achieving the inflation target and the significance of not changing the target prematurely.
At the end of 2023, there was a lot of optimism that the US economy was on that glide path to a soft landing. But at least in the first quarter of this year, inflation has come in hotter than expected. So is this just a speedbump on the way back down to 2%? Or is this a new trajectory for inflation that will make the Federal Reserve rethink its existing approach? On this bonus episode of Odd Lots, we caught up with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin in Mount Airy, North Carolina, to get his assessment of the latest data, and what it means for policy. He explains why he thinks policy is still restrictive, and why he doesn’t see evidence yet of overheating demand.