The Rise of the Somme Rule

The So-called Somme Rule, developed by Claudia Somme, is gaining prominence as a key indicator of recession. It stipulates that if the unemployment rate rises more than half a percentage point within a year, the U.S. is likely in a recession. This rule has drawn significant attention from economists, policymakers, and the media, especially in light of recent economic changes. Claudia emphasizes that the Somme Rule was created as a diagnostic tool to trigger timely government intervention during economic downturns, such as direct stimulus payments.