NAB Morning Call US vote to open, high for Aussie housing investment
Nov 12, 2025
Sally Auld, NAB's markets economist, analyzes the recent surge in Australian investment home loans, indicating that the RBA's policies may not be as restrictive as they anticipated. She discusses how this surge could limit the case for immediate rate cuts. The conversation shifts to the US, where a potential vote to end the government shutdown looms, but potential disruptions in data reporting raise concerns. Auld also touches on ECB rates and global economic indicators, painting a complex picture for markets ahead.
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Record Investor Lending Challenges RBA Stance
- Australian new investment housing loans surged to a record, rising 13.6% in Q3 and lifting investor lending value by ~18%.
- Sally Auld says this shows monetary policy may be less restrictive than the RBA thought, reducing near-term cut prospects.
Credit Access And Prices Reduce Cut Case
- Rapid credit access and strong house prices reinforce growth and limit spare capacity in the economy.
- Sally Auld argues these factors make a near-term RBA rate cut unlikely.
Watch Jobs For Policy Confirmation
- Expect a partial reversal in the unemployment spike with NAB forecasting 20,000 jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate.
- Treat such a result as reinforcing the case for keeping policy unchanged in the near term.