Global Data Pod
Global Data Pod Weekender: When elephants fight
Apr 11, 2025
Jahangir Aziz, an economist with a focus on the Asian economy and global trade, joins the conversation to dissect the ramifications of recent U.S.-China tariff policies. He emphasizes that a massive 10% universal tax and soaring tariffs on China could spell trouble for global trade stability. Aziz warns of a looming recession, discussing the intricate dynamics of international supply chains and fiscal support in China. The dialogue also touches on geopolitical tensions reshaping economic forecasts, particularly the challenges facing emerging markets.
45:57
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Quick takeaways
- The imposition of 145% tariffs on China poses severe risks to U.S.-China trade relations, potentially freezing their economic interactions and amplifying global trade disruptions.
- A projected $960 billion tax hike for the U.S. due to these tariffs is expected to significantly impact consumer confidence, leading to potential recessionary pressures on both U.S. and global economies.
Deep dives
Impact of U.S.-China Tariffs on Global Trade
The discussion highlights the profound impact of recently imposed tariffs on China, reaching as high as 145%, and their implications for U.S.-China trade relations. Such tariffs threaten to significantly disrupt the trading landscape, potentially freezing U.S.-China trade altogether and indicating a severe trade shock for the global economy. The cost of these tariffs is projected to be approximately a $960 billion tax hike for the U.S., which is alarming when considering its implications for GDP and import dependencies. The pessimistic outlook suggests that this will likely lead to a U.S. recession, with accompanying global ramifications spanning far beyond just the bilateral relations.
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