Global Data Pod Global Data Pod Weekender: When elephants fight
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Apr 11, 2025 Jahangir Aziz, an economist with a focus on the Asian economy and global trade, joins the conversation to dissect the ramifications of recent U.S.-China tariff policies. He emphasizes that a massive 10% universal tax and soaring tariffs on China could spell trouble for global trade stability. Aziz warns of a looming recession, discussing the intricate dynamics of international supply chains and fiscal support in China. The dialogue also touches on geopolitical tensions reshaping economic forecasts, particularly the challenges facing emerging markets.
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Tariff Changes
- The Trump administration lowered tariffs to a standardized 10% across most of the world.
- However, they implemented extreme tariffs on China, approaching 145%, significantly impacting trade.
Trade War Impact
- Joe Lupton argues that the universal 10% tariff is a substantial shock to the global economy.
- He points out the significant impact of the 145% tariff on China, the largest trading partner of the US.
Global Trade Shock
- Jahangir Aziz suggests viewing the situation as a shock to global trade, not just a U.S. recession.
- He emphasizes the disruption of supply chains, even for trade not directly involving the U.S. or China.