Monetary Matters with Jack Farley Economic Playbook For Trump 2.0 | Eric Wallerstein on Tariffs, DOGE, Jobs Numbers, and Global Trade War Tail Risk
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Mar 2, 2025 
Eric Wallerstein, Chief Markets Strategist at Yardeni Research, discusses his optimistic outlook on the U.S. economy amidst a potential second Trump administration. He explores the complexities of tariffs, highlighting their potential benefits for U.S. companies. Wallerstein analyzes how AI could transform the labor market, improving productivity while addressing worker shortages. He also delves into the evolving role of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, emphasizing their growing credibility as viable alternatives in the financial landscape.
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Trade War Risk vs. Reciprocal Tariffs
- The biggest risk is a global trade war, which could crush global trade and growth.
- However, reciprocal tariffs might encourage lowering trade barriers, potentially benefiting the US.
The Purpose of Tariffs
- Tariffs can serve multiple purposes: raising revenue, addressing national security, and rebalancing trade.
- The US has a low average tariff rate compared to other countries with hidden trade barriers.
DOGE's Limited Impact
- The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) aims to cut costs, but its impact on the deficit is minimal.
- Real change requires reshaping the economy, not just line-by-line contract reviews.