HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami: What happens to inventory if rates go to 6%?
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Jul 14, 2025 What happens to housing inventory if mortgage rates hit 6%? A lead analyst dives into the economic impact of inflation predictions and the Federal Reserve's strategies. The discussion highlights labor market trends and government policies affecting home sales. They navigate rising mortgage rates, affordability challenges, and inventory shifts, contrasting current dynamics with past stability. Finally, they analyze recent fluctuations in pending sales and predict the future of home prices in this evolving market.
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COVID Created Inventory Collapse
- Inventory collapsed to all-time lows during COVID while mortgage rates were below 4%.
- This created a savagely unhealthy housing market with too many buyers chasing too few homes.
Fed Focuses on Core Inflation
- Inflation reports skewed by shelter costs may not influence Federal Reserve decisions.
- The Fed focuses more on personal consumption expenditures inflation to guide rate policy.
Labor Market Softness Hidden by Govt Jobs
- Government job counts obscure true labor market softness.
- Private payrolls have been softening for up to two years, impacting housing market dynamics.