Predicting AI Policy in the Second Trump Administration
Nov 7, 2024
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Gregory C. Allen, Head of the Wadwani AI Center at CSIS, shares his expertise on AI policy and regulation. He discusses the achievements of the first Trump administration in AI and speculates on future policies concerning national security and safety. The conversation highlights the political dynamics between the Trump and Biden administrations, including expected regulatory challenges and open-source AI's future. Allen also touches on Taiwan's role in AI chip manufacturing and the potential implications for U.S.-China relations.
The Trump administration's initial AI regulations laid a crucial foundation that may influence upcoming policies and partisan divides on tech governance.
Concerns over AI safety initiatives illustrate internal conflicts within the Republican party regarding future directions in technology and innovation focus.
Deep dives
The Evolution of AI Policy Under Trump
The Trump administration's initial approach to AI regulation established a foundation that carries forward into discussions for the upcoming administration. Under Trump, significant executive orders emphasized investment in AI research and development, improving workforce capabilities, and setting governance standards, paralleling elements found in the Biden administration's executive order. Key frameworks, such as the NIST AI risk management framework, emerged during Trump’s presidency and have continued relevance today. This historical context is essential for understanding how the Republican platform approaches AI, particularly in its critiques of Biden's more regulatory stance.
Bipartisan to Partisan: The Shifting Landscape of AI Policy
While AI policy was largely bipartisan during the Biden administration, it has since evolved into a contentious political issue leading up to the 2024 campaign. The Republican platform criticizes the Biden administration, particularly targeting Vice President Harris's AI strategies, framing them as hindrances to innovation. Trump has publicly committed to repealing Biden's executive orders related to AI as a priority on his first day, raising questions about what his administration might retain or discard from past policies. This shift from collaboration towards partisan divides reflects broader electoral strategies and the differing priorities on technology governance.
Future of AI Safety and Global Competitiveness
The future of AI safety initiatives, such as the AI Safety Institute established by the Biden administration, is uncertain under Trump’s potential leadership. Influential figures in tech, like Elon Musk, advocate for AI safety; however, there remains a split within the Republican party over the institute's continuation. Concurrently, issues surrounding semiconductor export controls are likely to persist, as they were originally pioneered by the Trump administration amid rising competition with China. The integration of energy policies and tech growth expectations will drive significant conversations about how to sustain AI innovation while navigating complex geopolitical landscapes.
In this episode, we discuss what AI policy might look like under the second Trump administration. We dive into the first Trump administration's achievements (0:50), how the Trump campaign handled AI policy (3:37), and where the new administration might fall on key issue areas like national security (5:59), safety (7:37), export controls (11:27), open-source (14:04), and more.
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