Kirill Shamiev, an expert on Russia and civil-military relations, discusses the aftermath of the Wagner mutiny in Russia and its impact on the political system and regime. The episode explores the fragility and centralization of the Russian state, the involvement of private military groups in conflicts abroad, and the transition of Wagner mercenaries into the Russian army.
The mutiny led by the Wagner group, headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, posed a significant challenge to President Vladimir Putin's authority. Although not targeting Putin directly, the rebellion called for changes within the military leadership. Initially seen as a threat to Putin's rule, the mutiny ultimately strengthened his regime. The failed attempt highlighted the resilience of the Russian political system and the state's ability to suppress internal dissent.
Fragility of the Russian System
The mutiny exposed the fragility of the Russian state and security apparatus, revealing the centralized nature of decision-making and control. Despite the uprising, security agencies remained loyal to Moscow, underscoring the system's ability to maintain order in the face of internal challenges. The failed mutiny resulted in repercussions for dissenting individuals, reinforcing the regime's hold on power.
Legacy and Future of Wagner Group
The aftermath of the mutiny highlighted the criminal activities of ex-Wagner members, including violent crimes upon their return to Russia. Prigozhin's recruitment tactics and the incorporation of former inmates into military units have raised concerns about ongoing crimes and social integration. Wagner's fate has seen diversification, with mercenaries deployed abroad under Russian military supervision and others joining smaller private military groups. The ongoing presence of ex-Wagner members poses long-term security risks domestically and internationally.
How has the rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenary force changed Russia, and what effects may still be to come? Kirill Shamiev, a fellow at the European Council of Foreign Relations and an expert on Russia and civil-military relations, joins the host to discuss.
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