NAB Morning Call Not very Zen
9 snips
Dec 1, 2025 Rodrigo Catril, a NAB markets economist known for his insights on macro and fixed-income analysis, joins to discuss key market movements. He dives into Japan's bond yield surge after Governor Ueda hinted at a potential December rate hike. The implications for global capital flows and the yen are explored, alongside the impact of a weak ISM manufacturing report on US equities. Catril also reviews Australia and New Zealand's economic indicators, along with concerns over China's slowing economy and the European inflation outlook.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Japan Speech Triggered Global Yield Move
- Governor Ueda's remarks pushed Japanese yields sharply higher across the curve, surprising markets used to ultra-low rates.
- The move spilled into global bond markets, lifting yields in the US, Europe and Australia within hours.
Communication Plus Fiscal Clarity Raised Hike Odds
- Markets interpreted Ueda's comments and government fiscal signals as increasing the odds of a December BoJ rate hike.
- That combination of central bank communication plus fiscal clarity amplified the bond sell-off.
Rising JGB Yields May Slow Outflows — With Caution
- Higher Japanese yields reduce the gap versus overseas bond returns, making domestic JGBs more relatively attractive if yields stabilize.
- But Rodrigo warns caution: investors typically avoid buying into rising-yield markets until they see a peak.