Yellow Cake (LSE:YCA) - 22Mlbs of Uranium Resource Positions for AI & Data Centers Nuclear Demand

Jul 11, 2025

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Interview with Andre Liebenberg, Executive Director & CEO of Yellow Cake PLC

Our previous interview: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/slow-supply-fast-demand-uraniums-new-investment-reality-7136

Recording date: 7th July 2025

Yellow Cake presents a compelling pure-play uranium investment opportunity positioned to capitalize on structural supply-demand imbalances in the global uranium market. The London-listed company holds approximately 22 million pounds of physical uranium stored primarily in Canada and France, providing direct exposure to uranium price appreciation without operational mining risks.

The investment thesis centers on a fundamental supply deficit that is expected to persist for 3-5 years. Current global uranium production delivers approximately 165 million pounds annually against demand of 180 million pounds and rising, creating an immediate gap of 15 million pounds that is projected to widen as nuclear capacity expansion accelerates globally. China alone is constructing 26-28 reactors simultaneously, while technology companies increasingly turn to nuclear power for reliable, clean electricity to power data centers and artificial intelligence operations.

Technology sector involvement represents a transformative catalyst for uranium demand. Amazon's $20 billion commitment to data center complexes alone represents half the market capitalization of the entire uranium sector, highlighting the scale of capital these companies are willing to deploy for energy security. As CEO Andre Liebenberg notes, "If a tech company had to put 20 billion dollars into the mining space, you could build a pretty big project for that." This suggests technology companies possess sufficient resources to directly address supply constraints through upstream investments if fuel security becomes a constraint to their operations.

Supply-side constraints appear particularly acute given the limited number of producing jurisdictions. Five countries produce 90% of global uranium, with Kazakhstan accounting for approximately half of world production. Much of this flows to China and Russia, creating a "bifurcated market" where Western utilities face increasing competition for uranium supplies. As Liebenberg explains, "Kazakhstan, half their material goes to China. If you include Russia, it's probably closer to 2/3. Namibia, the two operating mines in Namibia are both owned by the Chinese that goes to China."

Critical inventory depletion adds urgency to the supply situation. US utilities now hold approximately two years or less of uranium reserves against an 18-24 month fuel cycle, representing what Liebenberg characterizes as "the low point of their infantry." This follows nearly a decade of utilities contracting below consumption levels, a practice that cannot continue indefinitely. The eventual resumption of utility contracting represents a key catalyst for uranium price appreciation.

Yellow Cake's strategic positioning provides multiple competitive advantages. The company's agreement with Kazatomprom allows $100 million annual uranium acquisitions at spot prices through 2027, providing assured access to supply in an increasingly thin market. As Liebenberg observes, "With the spot market today, you saw Sprott raise $200 million and the spot market popped $7 without them spending a penny. It's a very thin and liquid market. So $100 million volume will move the price."

The company's track record demonstrates strategy effectiveness. Yellow Cake raised $200 million at IPO when uranium traded at $21 per pound and has grown to over $1.5 billion in market capitalization with uranium at $76 per pound. Liebenberg expresses confidence in continued appreciation: "I'm still of the belief that we could see a doubling in the uranium price. We're sort of partway through that journey."

Government policy support for nuclear expansion, including the World Bank's decision to resume nuclear project funding and support from 14 major banks for tripling nuclear capacity, creates favorable regulatory tailwinds. Small modular reactor development adds another demand catalyst, with commercial operation possible by the end of the decade.

Yellow Cake PLC offers investors direct uranium exposure through a transparent, risk-controlled business model positioned to benefit from structural supply-demand imbalances and technology sector-driven demand growth over the next 3-5 years.

View Yellow Cake's company profile: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/companies/yellow-cake-plc