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Marisa's Pickleball Break
- Marisa took up pickleball as a break from her seven-year hobby of ocean paddling.
- She found paddling every Saturday morning in the Pacific too onerous mentally and physically.
Forecasting Recession Risks
- Moody's won Most Accurate U.S. Forecast for 2023-2024 by Consensus Economics by avoiding a recession forecast.
- Most economists forecasted recession due to high inflation and rate hikes, but Moody's process required high confidence for major changes.
Immigration's Economic Impact
- A surge in immigration in 2023 added substantial labor supply during tight labor markets.
- This surprise helped the Fed avoid more aggressive rate hikes and prevented a recession, contrary to many forecasts.