Swamp Notes: Why more Latinos are voting Republican
Aug 17, 2024
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Myles McCormick, a Houston correspondent for the Financial Times, and Mike Madrid, a savvy Republican political strategist, delve into the shifting loyalties of Latino voters. They analyze the decline in Democratic support and the rising discontent among younger U.S.-born Latinos who prioritize economic issues over ethnic identities. The discussion also touches on the implications of this trend for the upcoming elections and the challenges both parties face in engaging this diverse electorate.
The historical allegiance of Latino voters to the Democratic Party is shifting due to feelings of neglect and economic priorities.
Younger Latino voters are increasingly identifying as typical Americans, focusing more on pocketbook issues rather than racial identity.
Deep dives
Trends Among Latino Voters
In recent elections, there has been a notable shift in voting patterns among Latino voters, particularly in regions with high Hispanic populations, such as Starr County in Texas. Historically, this area had a strong Democratic lean, with nearly 86% supporting Barack Obama in 2012, but this support dwindled to just over half for Joe Biden in 2020. Interviews with local residents revealed feelings of disillusionment with the Democratic Party, which many attributed to a sense of neglect and abandonment, leading them to consider alternative options. This trend indicates a significant erosion of traditional Democratic support among Latino voters, driving a potential shift toward Republican candidates in future elections.
Understanding the Latino Electorate's Shift
Latino voters, especially those under 30, are increasingly identifying less with ethnic and racial categories and more as typical Americans focused on economic issues. A substantial number of these voters now prioritize pocketbook concerns over racial identity, a change that could reshape the political landscape. Political strategists believe that both parties have historically misunderstood these demographics, with Democrats failing to acknowledge their departure and Republicans not fully capitalizing on their potential support. This demographic evolution suggests that the Latino electorate is becoming a unique voting bloc that does not adhere to traditional partisan alignments.
Implications of Kamala Harris's Campaign Strategy
Kamala Harris's recent shift toward a stronger emphasis on border security exemplifies the Democratic Party's attempts to recalibrate its strategy in response to dwindling Latino support. By adopting positions that align more closely with conservative values, such as hiring additional border agents, Harris aims to reconnect with Latino voters who feel economically squeezed. Recent polling suggests that this strategy may resonate better with Latino voters than previous messaging used by Biden, though the underlying issues still persist for the Democrats. Despite this strategic pivot, analysts argue that the shift seen in the Latino vote is likely a sustained change rather than a short-term trend.
Latino voters were once considered a reliable bet for Democrats. But with each passing election, Republicans are making more inroads with them. The FT’s Houston correspondent, Myles McCormick, and Republican political strategist, Mike Madrid, join this week’s Swamp Notes to unpack this shift.
Swamp Notes is produced by Ethan Plotkin, Sonja Hutson, Lauren Fedor and Marc Filippino. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. Special thanks to Pierre Nicholson.