NAB Morning Call US jobs fall, AU GDP, softer but strong
Dec 3, 2025
Ken Crompton, a senior economist at NAB, joins to dissect the latest US job numbers, which fell short of expectations, hinting at potential Fed rate cuts. He also examines Australia's Q3 GDP, which shows weakness in headlines but strength in demand. The discussion touches on the implications for the RBA's monetary policy, alongside insights into global services PMIs, from China's subdued performance to a sharp drop in Canada's activity. Crompton connects the dots between domestic and international economic signals, offering a comprehensive outlook.
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ADP Weakness Pulls Treasury Yields Lower
- US Treasury yields fell after weaker ADP jobs, signaling softer US labour momentum.
- Markets now price a higher chance of a Fed rate cut next week based on that signal.
GDP Headline Masked Strong Domestic Demand
- Australian Q3 GDP surprised on the downside at 0.4% q/q due to large inventory drags, especially mining.
- Under the surface, private consumption and business investment were strong, softening the market reaction.
Investment And Consumption Power Growth
- Private consumption rose 0.5% and business investment jumped 3.4%, powered by data centre construction.
- Inventories subtracted 0.5% and may set up a rebuild in coming quarters supporting GDP later.