Africa and the New World Order: U.S. Pulls Back and China Moves Forward

Jan 27, 2026

Judd Devermont, former White House Africa strategist turned Kupanda Capital partner and CSIS advisor. He discusses U.S. retrenchment in Africa, China’s shrinking but shifting finance, the diplomatic damage from recent U.S. policy moves, and why African leaders view China as opportunity. Short-term aid cuts vs long-term partnership and new U.S. strategies are also debated.

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INSIGHT

Sharp Drop In China-Africa Lending

Chinese loan commitments to Africa fell 46% in 2024 to $2.1 billion across six projects. This marks a dramatic shift from 2016's $28.8 billion pace and signals an austere new era.

INSIGHT

Tone-Deaf Messaging From Washington

A leaked State Department email urged diplomats to remind African governments of U.S. 'generosity' despite major aid cuts. The timing and tone felt tone-deaf given recent sharp reductions in U.S. assistance.

INSIGHT

Africa Framed As 'Peripheral' In D.C.

Judd Devermont called the situation an 'upside-down world' and criticized an Africa-as-peripheral framing. He argued that framing Africa as peripheral undermines mission and embassy morale.

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The collapse of the post-war international system now underway will have a disproportionate impact on African countries that rely heavily on multilateral bodies like the UN. Beyond a pull-back of aid and humanitarian assistance, African countries must also contend with an increasingly hostile United States.

Dozens of African countries have been targeted by the Trump administration for visa restrictions, trade sanctions, and regularly denigrated by the president himself. At the same time, U.S. diplomats across the continent were ordered by the State Department in January to remind African governments to express more gratitude to the U.S. for its "generosity."

Judd Devermont, the former top Africa strategist at the White House during the Biden administration and now an operating partner at Kupanda Capital in Washington, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the future of U.S.-Africa relations and China's expanding presence on the continent.

📌 Topics covered in this episode:

China's sharp drop in Africa lending and what it signals
Why big Chinese infrastructure projects are fading
U.S. Africa relations after USAID and PEPFAR cuts
The leaked State Department email and Africa as a "peripheral" priority
America's collapsing credibility in Africa and beyond
Why China is seen as an opportunity, not an ally
Critical minerals and the limits of extractive diplomacy
What the shifting U.S.-China-Africa balance means next

Show Notes:

Post Strategy: On China by Judd Devermont
The Guardian: Head of US Africa bureau urges staff to highlight US 'generosity' despite aid cuts by Aisha Down
China Power Project: US-China-Africa Relations: A View from Africa by Lina Benabdallah

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