The Trivium China Podcast Ep 52 - China's economic slowdown – not as bad as it seems
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Dec 26, 2025 Joe Peissel, lead macroeconomic analyst at Trivium China, joins to unpack China's recent economic data, revealing a nuanced picture behind the headlines. They discuss the slowdown in fixed asset investment and industrial output, attributing some of it to policy decisions. Despite disappointing retail sales, consumer dynamics show resilience, particularly in services. Peissel also highlights a rebound in exports and a shift toward high-value goods. Looking ahead, they anticipate targeted fiscal measures and continued infrastructure spending as part of China's recovery strategy.
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Headlines Overstate The Slowdown
- November data showed clear slowdown in headline indicators but with important caveats.
- Joe Peissel says the print was "bad, but not that bad."
High‑Tech Output Is Outperforming
- Overall industrial output slowed to 4.8% but high‑tech industrial output accelerated above 8%.
- Joe Peissel highlights high‑tech growth as a structural positive amid weaker aggregate IVA.
Investment Fall Is Partly Policy‑Driven
- Fixed asset investment plunged double digits but much of that decline is policy‑driven.
- Joe Peissel explains Beijing is reducing excess capacity and local governments are paying down hidden debt.