A Chinese Perspective on the Russia-Ukraine War: A Conversation with Dr. Zhao Hai
Apr 12, 2024
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Dr. Zhao Hai discusses China's views on the Russia-Ukraine war, highlighting concerns about escalation and nuclear weapons. He explains China's perspective on the conflict as a shift towards multi-polarity, with implications for the Indo-Pacific. Dr. Zhao also explores the impact of the conflict on global order, international norms, and China's diplomatic relations amidst the crisis.
China is concerned about the risk of further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly regarding the potential use of nuclear weapons.
China views the conflict as a sign of a shifting world order towards multi-polarity and is analyzing US proxy warfare strategies in Ukraine for potential Indo-Pacific implications.
Deep dives
Impact of Ukraine Conflict on China's Global Positioning
The conflict in Ukraine has raised significant concerns in China, with a focus on how it impacts China's relations with leading powers like the United States, Europe, and Russia. China has found itself in a delicate position as the conflict strains its ties with major trading partners and strategic allies, causing apprehension about its role in maintaining peace and mediating between conflicting parties.
China's Strategic Engagement with Global South in Context of Ukraine Conflict
China's engagement with the global south has been influenced by the perspectives on the Ukraine conflict, highlighting differences in views compared to the West. While the global south desires a balanced approach to conflicts and international order, they also emphasize the importance of ending the conflict due to its impact on food and energy supplies. China aims to play a mediating role and foster a fair and inclusive international order amidst the turmoil.
Lessons Learned by China from Russia and Ukraine in Conflict Operations
China is closely observing both Russian and Ukrainian military operations in the conflict, noting the importance of the Ukrainian people's resilience and the need for external support to sustain the fight. China is analyzing the US and NATO's involvement in the conflict, exploring the evolving concept of proxy warfare, termed 'Avatar War,' which integrates advanced technologies into armed conflicts to shape future warfare strategies.
Forecast for the Evolution of the Ukraine Conflict in 2024
As the conflict unfolds, Russia's strategic moves are influenced by US elections and potential political changes in Europe. Russia aims to leverage its military advantage while remaining open to negotiations based on future political shifts. Ukraine is attuned to the political dynamics in major powers and is strategizing to utilize domestic and international politics to navigate the conflict dynamics. The battlefield dynamics are intertwined with political developments, setting the stage for a complex evolution in the conflict.
In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Dr. Zhao Hai joins us to discuss China’s views on the Russia-Ukraine war and its broader implications for China. Dr. Zhao provides an assessment of how he thinks China perceives the evolving situation on the ground, emphasizing China’s concerns about the risk of further escalation between Russia and the West, potentially involving the use of nuclear weapons. He argues that the Ukraine crisis has heightened U.S.-Russia competition and speaks to how China views the conflict as a sign of the world order shifting towards one of multi-polarity. He also shared his assessment of the United States engaging in enhanced proxy warfare in Ukraine that could be used in the Indo-Pacific in the future.
Dr. Zhao is the director of the International Politics Program at the National Institute for Global Strategy and research fellow at the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). Before joining CASS, he was a research fellow at the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University. His research interests are Sino-US strategic relations, geopolitics in East Asia, and international security cooperation. Dr. Zhao holds a PhD in international history from the University of Chicago and a Master’s degree in Asia-Pacific Studies from Peking University. The views he shared on the podcast were his personal views.
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