Prediction Market Movers Zohran Mamdani’s New York? Damon Thayer React to Election Night | Prediction Market Movers
Nov 6, 2025
This week’s guest, Damon Thayer, Former Kentucky Senate Majority Leader and Political Director at Prediction News, dissects the surprising election outcomes in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia. He predicts how Zohran Mamdani’s win might reshape Democratic strategies and examines pressing voter issues. Thayer also delves into the potential shifts in party leadership and why Democrats might misinterpret their off-year victories. Plus, he addresses the role of Trump in shaping candidate dynamics and the balance Republicans need for future success.
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Off-Year Results Reflect Turnout, Not National Shift
- Off-year elections favor the more-motivated party and often revert to expected partisan outcomes.
- Damon Thayer says Democrats won predictable blue contests, with turnout and motivation driving results.
Huge Market Interest In New York Mayor Race
- Damon found $120 million traded on the New York mayoral market versus much less in NJ and VA.
- He used that trading data to show where prediction-market liquidity concentrated.
NYC's Result Could Backfire For Democrats
- Thayer warns New York's socialist mayor could politically harm Democrats nationally.
- He expects voters will see socialist policies unfold and potentially react negatively.
