“The Humble Investor” | Dan Rasmussen on Mag7, Value, Private Equity & Credit, and More
Feb 10, 2025
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Dan Rasmussen, founder and CIO of Verdad Advisers and author of "The Humble Investor," shares compelling insights into the complexities of value investing and private equity. He discusses navigating the turbulent waters of AI investments, emphasizing a balanced strategy amid fluctuating market sentiments. Rasmussen explores the rise of private credit and its risks, highlighting the overlooked micro and nano cap stocks as hidden gems. He also underscores the importance of humility in investment, advocating for an awareness of market dynamics and avoiding overconfidence.
Investors must critically evaluate market sentiments and recognize how excessive enthusiasm, particularly in AI, often leads to significant losses.
The performance of growth stocks, especially in technology, does not guarantee future success, prompting a renewed focus on value investing principles.
The private equity sector faces challenges due to high valuations and unrealistic return expectations, necessitating a reevaluation of investment strategies for sustainability.
Deep dives
The Importance of Market Sentiment in Investing
Investing success depends on understanding not just what you think about a market condition but how your thoughts compare to prevailing market sentiments. The concept of meta-analysis posits that excessive enthusiasm towards a particular technology or investment creates opportunities for savvy investors, as history shows that such peaks often lead to subsequent declines. This principle holds profound implications for current hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), where large-scale investments by major corporations warrant skepticism about future returns. As past patterns suggest, unchecked enthusiasm may lead to significant losses as realities fail to align with high expectations.
The Risks of Large Capital Expenditure on AI
Large corporations are currently directing colossal amounts of capital, sometimes exceeding $80 billion, into AI infrastructure, primarily for data centers, which showcases a shift from traditional venture capital funding. However, the uncertainty surrounding the returns on such massive investments raises critical concerns, as historical data indicates that rapid growth in capital expenditures does not guarantee favorable returns. The analogy is drawn to previous cycles in industries like shale gas and bandwidth, where significant investments have failed to translate into profits for investors. This presents a cautionary tale for companies like Microsoft, needing to justify such spending against an unpredictable market landscape.
Skepticism in Valuations Amidst AI Hype
The current market situation around AI reveals a concerning trend where the severed relationship between technology enthusiasm and actual investment returns raises red flags. Many top-tier companies, despite boundless optimism, are trading at high multiples, leading to questions about their ability to meet revenue expectations. The lack of a proven 'killer app' in AI, along with the uncertainties in consumer behavior and market adaptation to new technologies, compounds these concerns. Investors should maintain a critical view and not succumb to the seductive allure of tech bubbles that have historically caused substantial losses.
Long-term Performance Trends in Growth and Value Investing
Despite historical performance claims, trends show that growth rates are not reliable indicators of future success in both the tech and overall market, suggesting that past growth does not guarantee continued high performance. Investors have a tendency to overweight high-valuation tech stocks, often ignoring the possible long-term decline that could follow excessive optimism. Value investing, while deemed out of favor in recent years, has potential for resurgence as undervalued equities across international markets have been performing better than U.S. equities. The focus should shift towards recognizing the cyclical nature of stocks and rooting investment strategies in fundamental analysis to anticipate market behaviors.
Concerns Surrounding Private Equity and Credit
The burgeoning private equity market has created pressures due to overallocating funds in an asset class that's smaller in scale compared to public markets. The unrealistic expectation that private equity firms can uniquely utilize operational efficiencies to generate substantial value raises doubts about the sustainability of these returns, particularly in a higher interest rate environment. Investors are encouraged to consider the implications of inflated valuations in private equity and the inflated expectations surrounding it; if a downturn occurs, those investing based solely on historical performance may suffer significant losses. This situation calls for humility and a careful recalibration of investment strategies, leaning towards prudence rather than speculation.
Dan Rasmussen, founder and CIO of Verdad Advisers, joins Jack to share insights on value, magnificent 7, private equity & credit, and bonds, from his new book, “The Humble Investor: How to find a winning edge in a surprising world.” Recorded on February 4, 2025.
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