Join Anastasiia Lapatina, a savvy journalist and researcher focused on Ukrainian politics, as she engages in a riveting discussion about recent shifts in national security leadership and the implications for U.S.-Ukraine relations. They delve into a controversial minerals agreement and its potential to exploit Ukraine’s vulnerability while exploring Russia's ambitions in the Arctic amidst sanctions. The conversation is rich with insights, revealing the complexities of geopolitics, and sprinkled with light-hearted moments that keep it engaging.
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insights INSIGHT
Leadership Shift Masks Real Power
Mike Waltz was removed as National Security Advisor in a way that masks it as a promotion.
Rubio's new dual role may give him titular power but not substantive influence over policy.
insights INSIGHT
Proximity Trumps Position in DC
Ukrainians see the US administration switch as symbolic but not policy-changing.
Real influence over Trump’s Ukraine policy comes from personal proximity, not titles or positions.
insights INSIGHT
NSAdvisor Role Offers Proximity Potential
National Security Advisor position offers better institutional proximity to Trump than Secretary of State.
Influence depends more on personal relationship with Trump than formal title or role.
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This week, Scott sat down with his Lawfare colleagues Benjamin “The Beard” Wittes and Anastasiia (and Ava) Lapatina to discuss the week’s biggest national security news stories, including:
“A Waltz on Thin Ice.” Weeks after the SignalGate controversy, Mike Waltz is out as National Security Adviser and set to be nominated as U.N. Ambassador. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile, is in for a record fourth high-ranking appointment, though rumors are circulating about just how long he may remain in the position. How big a deal is this switch in leadership? What might its broader implications be?
“Resource Extraction.” After months of negotiations, Ukraine and the Trump administration have finally signed a minerals agreement that gives the United States (and, perhaps more importantly, President Trump) a financial stake in Ukraine’s ongoing independence. Is the deal just exploiting Ukraine’s vulnerability? Or is there a chance it might contribute to a better outcome for the beleaguered country?
“Liquid Assets.” Russia has gotten its liquefied natural gas (or LNG) facility off the ground in the Arctic and is getting ready to export through a shadowfleet of unregistered vessels to eager buyers in China who are undeterred by Western sanctions. What does the situation tell us about the effectiveness of sanctions? And what is Russia up to in the Arctic?
In Object Lessons, Ben logrolled Lawfare’s accidentally-on-purpose, Fridays-at-4pm YouTube show, Lawfare Live (like, Like and Subscribe to our channel!). Scott’s getting ready for grilled pizza season and shared tips for how to handle the heat. And turning the temperature down a notch, Nastya recommended Minna Ålander’s substack, Northern Flank Notes, for more uutiset on the Nordic-Baltic-Arctic region.
The Lawfare Podcast