Dahlia Scheindlin, a prominent Tel Aviv-based political analyst and Haaretz columnist, breaks down the complexities of Israel's political turmoil. She discusses Prime Minister Netanyahu's surprising resilience and his attempts to reshape state institutions amid widespread public discontent. The conversation also touches upon the shifting political dynamics following the October 7th attacks and the implications for U.S.-Israel relations. Scheindlin highlights the precarious state of democracy in Israel and the challenges posed by right-wing coalitions and potential electoral delays.
Netanyahu's enduring political support stems from his ability to reshape alliances, despite significant public skepticism about his intentions.
The erosion of democratic norms in Israel, combined with rising public distrust, raises concerns over the future of governance and U.S.-Israel relations.
Deep dives
Netanyahu's Political Resilience
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demonstrates significant political resilience amid public skepticism towards his leadership. Despite widespread distrust, a core group of approximately one-third of the population supports his government and its endeavors, particularly among ultra-Orthodox and national religious communities. This persistent backing enables Netanyahu to maintain power, even as many Israelis question his motivations, suspecting that decisions are influenced more by personal political interests than national security. The fragmented party system allows Netanyahu to re-engineer political alliances, further complicating efforts to unseat him.
Divided Public Sentiment in Israel
Current public sentiment in Israel is deeply polarized, evidenced by ongoing protests against the government and specific actions taken by Netanyahu, such as attempts to fire key officials like the attorney general. Surveys indicate that around 60% of Israelis believe the Prime Minister’s decisions are primarily self-serving, particularly in the context of the ongoing conflict, while only a minority perceives these actions as genuinely motivated by national interest. This public skepticism is accompanied by declining military enlistment rates, raising concerns about the government’s ability to sustain prolonged conflict without adequate recruitment and motivation. The political landscape remains contentious, with protests highlighting the significant divisions that characterize Israeli society.
Impact of War on Netanyahu's Leadership
The onset of conflict significantly impacted Netanyahu's approval ratings, with an initial sharp decline in public support following the October 7 attacks. Contrary to typical patterns observed in other countries during crises, where leaders generally receive a surge of support, Netanyahu saw a steep drop as public trust in his government plummeted. Over time, however, strategic military actions against entities like Hezbollah and Hamas helped him recover some lost support, as perceptions of national strength re-emerged. Despite this recovery, the government continues to face skepticism from a majority of the population regarding its long-term strategies and motivations.
Future of Israeli Democracy and U.S. Relations
The trajectory of Israeli democracy is threatened by attempts to undermine judicial independence and civil society, with many fearing elections may not result in meaningful changes in governance. Concerns about the potential for election postponement and further erosion of democratic norms add to the public's unease. Additionally, the relationship between Israel and the United States may face challenges as divergent interests emerge, particularly in relations with regional powers like Iran and Saudi Arabia. As Israel navigates its political landscape, the implications for bilateral ties could evolve, especially if actions perceived as undermining U.S. strategy spark significant discontent within American political circles.
This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Dr. Dahlia Scheindlin, a Tel Aviv-based political analyst and Haaretz columnist. Scheindlin also serves as a fellow at Century International and has advised on eight national Israeli election campaigns over a twenty-year period. Together, they discuss the sources of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s staying power, as well as his ongoing efforts to remodel key state institutions. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Ninar Fawal and Will Todman to evaluate how the changes underway in Israel might affect bilateral relations with the United States.