Less Noise, More Signal Macro is very constructive moving into 2026 (w/ Ram Ahluwalia)
Jan 1, 2026
Ram Ahluwalia, CEO of Lumida Wealth, shares his extensive expertise in macro and crypto investing. He describes the current macroeconomic environment as a Goldilocks economy ideal for risk assets. The conversation touches on Bitcoin's role as an attention asset, challenges it faces, and the rise of stablecoins. Ahluwalia also highlights emerging market investment opportunities in Brazil and South Korea, and discusses the dual-edged sword of AI's productivity impacts while assessing risks of the AI bubble. Finally, he emphasizes the transformative potential of tokenization in finance.
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Goldilocks Macro Backdrop
- The macro is a Goldilocks environment for risk assets with disinflation, record earnings growth and a Fed biased to cut.
- Strong productivity gains from AI add GDP and strengthen the constructive backdrop.
Don't Rely On Big Deficit Cuts
- Expect federal deficits to remain elevated because mandatory entitlement and defense spending dominate the budget.
- Avoid betting on large durable deficit reduction absent major political or demographic shifts.
Trade Deficit Funds U.S. Asset Inflows
- The U.S. finances its trade deficit by exporting financial assets, so closing the trade deficit risks weaker economic performance.
- Politically engineered trade closure is hard and often backtracks due to real economic frictions.