We aren't returning to geopolitical normalcy, Trump or no Trump - A conversation with Tina Fordham

Tina Fordham, a leading independent strategist and advisor and founder of Fordham Global Insight, discusses the changing landscape of geopolitics and its impact on the global economy. She highlights the need for a holistic approach to understanding geopolitical risks and challenges the effectiveness of AI and machine learning in predicting human behaviour. Fordham also shares her insights on the upcoming US elections and emphasises the importance of considering historical context and avoiding projection when analysing political events. The conversation explores the upcoming US election and its implications for the post-World War II liberal order, the Democratic National Convention, and the future of the transatlantic relationship. It also touches on the unpredictability of the election outcome, and the impact of geopolitical tensions. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the potential consequences if Iran acts militarily against Israel.

Takeaways

• Geopolitical analysis requires a holistic approach that combines data analysis with historical context and an understanding of human behaviour.
• AI and machine learning have limitations in predicting geopolitical risks due to the complexity of human behaviour.
• The global economy has experienced significant changes in the past 15 years, and the idea of returning to a 'normal' state is unrealistic.
• Perceptions of geopolitical events often lag behind the reality, and there is a need for better education on recent history and current global trends.
• The upcoming US elections are unpredictable, and it is important to consider multiple factors and avoid projecting personal biases. The US election will have significant implications for the post-World War II liberal order and the future of the transatlantic relationship.
• The Democratic National Convention is focused on party cohesion and introducing Kamala Harris as Joe Biden's running mate.
• The outcome of the election remains uncertain, and there may be more surprises to come.
• Geopolitical tensions, such as those in the Middle East, could impact the election and global stability.
• Iran's actions in the Middle East could have fundamental destabilising effects.

Adam Smith's Panmure House

Adam Dixon

Fordham Global

Tina Fordham