Recording date: 18th June, 2025

The platinum group metals (PGMs) sector is experiencing a significant rally driven by fundamental supply-demand imbalances and emerging physical demand from China. Since May 1st, platinum has surged 33% while palladium has gained 12.5%, marking a notable shift in markets that had been in deficit for years without corresponding price appreciation.

According to investment firm Olive Resource Capital, both platinum and palladium have operated in substantial deficits exceeding 500,000 ounces annually since 2022-2023, representing approximately 5% of their respective markets. The global palladium market totals roughly 9 million ounces annually, while platinum demand reaches about 7 million ounces, making these concentrated markets particularly sensitive to supply-demand shifts.

The current catalyst appears to be genuine physical demand from China, where investors are substituting PGMs for gold purchases, creating actual warehouse drawdowns rather than paper trading. This physical buying is removing metal from available supply, creating tangible market tightness. The substitution effect extends beyond investment to jewelry markets, where platinum's discount to gold attracts price-conscious consumers.

Supply-side pressures are intensifying structural constraints. South Africa, which produces 56% of global platinum, faces ongoing mine rationalization as deep, labor-intensive operations struggle with profitability at recent price levels. Meanwhile, Russia, contributing 26% of palladium supply, has been liquidating inventory to fund military operations, creating near-term oversupply but longer-term supply concerns.

Industrial demand remains robust despite electric vehicle growth. Hybrid vehicles actually require more PGM content than traditional engines due to thermal management needs, while broader industrial applications for emissions reduction continue expanding.

The combination of persistent deficits, Chinese physical demand, South African supply rationalization, and stable industrial consumption has created conditions for sustained price appreciation. With only 18 months of above-ground platinum inventory and mine development timelines extending 7-10 years, supply response capabilities appear limited, potentially supporting a multi-year bull market in PGMs.

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