Lawfare Archive: Hamas’s Attack on Israel and What Comes Next
Oct 5, 2024
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In this discussion, Natan Sachs, Dan Byman, Ghaith al-Omeri, and Benjamin Wittes delve into the recent, unprecedented Hamas attack on Israel. They analyze the potential repercussions for regional stability and the role of Iran in the conflict. The panel highlights Israel's military strategies and the looming humanitarian crisis in Gaza. They also explore Arab nations' varied responses and the implications for U.S. support of Israel. Their insights emphasize the emotional and political turmoil following this shocking escalation.
The Hamas attack on Israel represents a historical breach of national security, evoking intense emotional and political responses among Israelis.
Israel's military response, marked by significant Palestinian casualties, has led to divisions in public sentiment and challenges for the Palestinian Authority.
Iran's role in supporting Hamas underscores its strategic interest in destabilizing Israeli normalization efforts with Arab states, heightening regional tensions.
Deep dives
Escalation of Conflict in the Middle East
The recent invasion of southern Lebanon by Israel marks a significant escalation in the ongoing violence in the Middle East, following a devastating attack by Hamas. This attack, which occurred on October 7th and resulted in the deaths of over 1,000 individuals, has been described as the bloodiest day in Israeli history. The response from Israel has been severe, with widespread missile attacks on Gaza that have resulted in heavy Palestinian casualties. The potential for this conflict to expand into a regional war raises concerns regarding the broader implications for security and diplomatic efforts in the area.
Public Sentiment and National Trauma in Israel
The attack by Hamas has led to widespread trauma among Israelis, who view this incident as a historic breach of national security. Many believe that it has irrevocably altered the nation's perception of safety, similar to the post-9/11 sentiment in the United States. This emotional response is characterized by a strong demand for governmental action against Hamas, fueled by a sense of vengeance and the desire to prevent future attacks. The imagery and reports of the violence inflicted during this attack have intensified the calls for military retaliation, creating a complex landscape for Israeli leadership.
Intelligence Failures and Military Responses
The intelligence failures leading up to the Hamas attack have raised serious questions about Israel's defensive capabilities. Analysts suggest that Israeli intelligence underestimated Hamas's capacity for a large-scale offensive, leading to a catastrophic oversight. This failure has sparked debate regarding government priorities and the adequacy of defense preparations amidst ongoing regional threats. The Israeli military's subsequent aggressive strategies, including potential ground incursions, illustrate the urgent need to rectify these intelligence failures while navigating the complex dynamics of retaliation.
The Palestinian Perspective and Internal Politics
The military response from Israel to the Hamas attack has resulted in significant Palestinian casualties, causing a division in public sentiment regarding the violence. While there may initially be a sense of euphoria among some Palestinians following Hamas's actions, this is tempered by the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The Palestinian Authority, a rival to Hamas, faces increasing challenges in asserting its legitimacy as it navigates the fallout from this conflict. As civilian suffering mounts, differing reactions within Palestinian political factions illustrate the increasing complexity of the situation.
Regional Implications and the Role of Iran
Iran's involvement in fostering tensions through support for Hamas has far-reaching implications for regional stability. The Iranian government has a vested interest in disrupting Israeli normalization efforts with Arab states, particularly with Saudi Arabia. As Hamas's actions complicate diplomatic relations, the potential for Iranian influence to shape responses from various regional actors becomes increasingly significant. Ongoing military actions will likely test the relationships between countries, including Egypt and Jordan, while the balance of power in the region remains precarious.
From October 11, 2023: This past Saturday, the terrorist group Hamas launched an unprecedented raid from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel that left more than 1000 people – most of them Israeli civilians, many of them women, children, and the elderly – brutally murdered. Dozens more were taken as hostages back into Gaza. A shocked Israel has in turn responded with missile attacks into Gaza that have killed more than 800 Palestinians there, and is planning a broader offensive there. And as people search for more information on what’s transpired, there are concerns that events may yet spiral out into a broader regional war – one that, among other consequences, might derail efforts at normalization in the Israeli-Saudi relationship that have been a major focus of the United States in recent weeks.
To discuss these tragic events and their potentially seismic consequences, Lawfare Senior Editor Scott Anderson sat down with a panel of leading experts: Natan Sachs, Fellow at the Brookings Institution and director of our Center for Middle East Policy; Dan Byman, from the Center for Strategic & International Studies as well as Lawfare’s foreign policy editor; Ghaith al-Omeri of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy; and Lawfare’s own Editor-In-Chief Benjamin Wittes. They discussed the ripple effects the attack is having throughout the region, the role that Iran and other actors may have played, and what it may yet mean for the region and the broader world.
Please note that this episode contains content that some people may find disturbing. Listener discretion is advised.