Science Friday Meet A Pioneer Of Modern Weather Prediction
12 snips
May 22, 2025 
Climate scientist Dr. Jagadish Shukla, author of *A Billion Butterflies*, grew up in rural India where unpredictable monsoons meant life or death. He shares his remarkable journey from his village to becoming a pioneer in modern weather forecasting. Shukla discusses the evolution of weather predictions, the impact of chaos theory, and the challenges posed by climate change. He reflects on how his childhood shaped his career and emphasizes the critical need for accurate forecasting to protect vulnerable communities.
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Limits and Strengths of Weather Forecasting
- Weather forecasts are reliable up to about 7 days but become unreliable after 10 days due to chaotic system sensitivity.
- Seasonal forecasts are more predictable since they depend on average conditions influenced by ocean temperatures, not exact sequences.
Butterfly Effect and Seasonal Forecasting
- The butterfly effect limits exact day-to-day weather prediction but does not preclude predicting seasonal averages.
- Seasonal predictions rely on boundary conditions like ocean temperatures rather than small initial variations.
Confidence in Long-Term Climate Predictions
- Climate predictions 100 years ahead are more certain than 100-day weather forecasts because they depend on external forcings like CO2, not chaotic variables.
- CO2 concentration is the dominant factor shaping future climate change, unlike variable weather systems.