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On this week's episode, expert in oil and energy, Rory Johnston, joins hosts Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna to discuss predictions of supply shortfalls and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. They explore the impact of geopolitical escalation on global oil supply, analyzing factors like understated Iran production and strong Chinese demand. The podcast also delves into the potential consequences of Iran cutting oil supply to China, the historical usage of gasoline, and the latest update on crude oil inventory and production.
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Quick takeaways
- Massive supply shortfalls in the crude oil market predicted for Q3 and Q4 of 2023 did not occur due to factors such as leakage and discrepancies in the market.
- Imbalance in gas and diesel crack spreads is a result of OPEC+ cuts favoring diesel production, leading to oversupply in the gasoline market and challenges for refiners.
Deep dives
Crude oil supply shortfalls predictions did not materialize: Interview with Rory Johnston
In this podcast episode, Rory Johnston discusses why the predicted massive supply shortfalls in the crude oil market did not occur in Q3 and Q4 of 2023. He highlights the leakage and factors that contributed to the discrepancy between the predicted deficits and the actual deficits in the market. Johnston also talks about the geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the potential impact on oil prices. Additionally, he explores the recent developments in Venezuela, including the lifting of some sanctions and the prospects of freer and fairer elections.
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Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode