Forecasting the Future with Kalshi: America’s First Regulated Prediction Market

In this week’s episode of No Priors, Sarah sits down with Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi—the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the U.S. They dive into Kalshi’s recent victory to legalize election betting, explore ethical questions around trading on elections, and discuss whether prediction markets can offer more accuracy than traditional polls. Tarek shares insights on the history of futures markets, the line between gambling and financial trading, and the psychology behind betting. Plus, Sarah makes a live election bet, and Tarek reveals some of Kalshi’s most intriguing markets.

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Show Notes: 

0:00 Introduction

1:22 Sarah makes a live election bet on Kalshi

3:35 Getting approved and regulated by CFTC

5:48 Going up against the CFTC to legalize election betting

7:21 Debating the ethics of trading on elections

8:12 Gambling vs. trading 

9:12 Context and purpose of futures markets

12:38 The human psychology behind speculating /Humans conditioned to risk taking

17:17 Building a healthy exchange and scaling liquidity 

19:30 Introducing leverage and working with clearinghouses

22:29 Polls vs. prediction markets

24:59 Conditional markets

26:38 What makes Kalshi’s markets accurate

31:29 Tarek’s insights on the most interesting trades and markets on the platform