#1057 Daniel Hoyer: Cliodynamics, Inequality, Elite Overproduction, and Revolution

Feb 10, 2025

Daniel Hoyer, a prominent researcher in cliodynamics and author of "Figuring Out The Past," dives into the intriguing intersection of data and history. He discusses how mathematical frameworks can explain societal patterns and the recurring themes in historical events. Hoyer explores the roots of inequality and the concept of elite overproduction, questioning whether these issues are inevitable. He also sheds light on the phenomenon of polycrisis, urging the need for a deeper understanding of interconnected global challenges to foster social equity and prevent unrest.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Books

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Cliodynamics Definition

Cliodynamics applies the scientific method to history, using data and math.
It adds formalism and theory testing to traditional historical approaches.

INSIGHT

Cliodynamics Methodology

Cliodynamics uses "natural experiments"—studying historical events as uncontrolled experiments.
Formalizing assumptions and using math helps analyze these events, identifying patterns and deviations.

INSIGHT

Resolving Historical Debates

Cliodynamics helps resolve historical debates by testing multiple hypotheses with data.
For example, the "big men vs. big ideas" debate; it's usually a combination of factors.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

******Support the channel******

Patreon:https://www.patreon.com/thedissenter

PayPal: paypal.me/thedissenter

PayPal Subscription 1 Dollar:https://tinyurl.com/yb3acuuy

PayPal Subscription 3 Dollars:https://tinyurl.com/ybn6bg9l

PayPal Subscription 5 Dollars:https://tinyurl.com/ycmr9gpz

PayPal Subscription 10 Dollars:https://tinyurl.com/y9r3fc9m

PayPal Subscription 20 Dollars:https://tinyurl.com/y95uvkao

******Follow me on******

Website:https://www.thedissenter.net/

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thedissenteryt/

Twitter:https://x.com/TheDissenterYT

This show is sponsored by Enlites, Learning & Development done differently. Check the website here:http://enlites.com/

Dr. Daniel Hoyer is Senior Research Associate & Managing Director for Seshat: Global History Databank, Research Scientist with the SocialAI Research Group, and Founder of SODY. He is the author of Figuring Out The Past: The 3,495 Vital Statistics that Explain World History.

In this episode, we talk about cliodynamics, the use of science, data and maths to study history. We first discuss what it is and how it works, and how it applies to debates like the Big Man vs. Big Ideas debate and whether history repeats itself. We then get into the phenomenon of inequality and elite overproduction. We discuss whether inequality is inevitable; competition, social unrest, and revolution; and how revolutions can be prevented. We talk about why we live in an age of polycrisis, and possible solutions to it.

A HUGE THANK YOU TO MY PATRONS/SUPPORTERS: PER HELGE LARSEN, JERRY MULLER, HANS FREDRIK SUNDE, BERNARDO SEIXAS, ADAM KESSEL, MATTHEW WHITINGBIRD, ARNAUD WOLFF, TIM HOLLOSY, HENRIK AHLENIUS, FILIP FORS CONNOLLY, DAN DEMETRIOU, ROBERT WINDHAGER, RUI INACIO, ZOOP, MARCO NEVES, COLIN HOLBROOK, PHIL KAVANAGH, SAMUEL ANDREEFF, FRANCIS FORDE, TIAGO NUNES, FERGAL CUSSEN, HAL HERZOG, NUNO MACHADO, JONATHAN LEIBRANT, JOÃO LINHARES, STANTON T, SAMUEL CORREA, ERIK HAINES, MARK SMITH, JOÃO EIRA, TOM HUMMEL, SARDUS FRANCE, DAVID SLOAN WILSON, YACILA DEZA-ARAUJO, ROMAIN ROCH, DIEGO LONDOÑO CORREA, YANICK PUNTER, CHARLOTTE BLEASE, NICOLE BARBARO, ADAM HUNT, PAWEL OSTASZEWSKI, NELLEKE BAK, GUY MADISON, GARY G HELLMANN, SAIMA AFZAL, ADRIAN JAEGGI, PAULO TOLENTINO, JOÃO BARBOSA, JULIAN PRICE, EDWARD HALL, HEDIN BRØNNER, DOUGLAS FRY, FRANCA BORTOLOTTI, GABRIEL PONS CORTÈS, URSULA LITZCKE, SCOTT, ZACHARY FISH, TIM DUFFY, SUNNY SMITH, JON WISMAN, WILLIAM BUCKNER, PAUL-GEORGE ARNAUD, LUKE GLOWACKI, GEORGIOS THEOPHANOUS, CHRIS WILLIAMSON, PETER WOLOSZYN, DAVID WILLIAMS, DIOGO COSTA, ANTON ERIKSSON, ALEX CHAU, AMAURI MARTÍNEZ, CORALIE CHEVALLIER, BANGALORE ATHEISTS, LARRY D. LEE JR., OLD HERRINGBONE, MICHAEL BAILEY, DAN SPERBER, ROBERT GRESSIS, IGOR N, JEFF MCMAHAN, JAKE ZUEHL, BARNABAS RADICS, MARK CAMPBELL, TOMAS DAUBNER, LUKE NISSEN, KIMBERLY JOHNSON, JESSICA NOWICKI, LINDA BRANDIN, NIKLAS CARLSSON, GEORGE CHORIATIS, VALENTIN STEINMANN, PER KRAULIS, KATE VON GOELER, ALEXANDER HUBBARD, BR, MASOUD ALIMOHAMMADI, JONAS HERTNER, URSULA GOODENOUGH, DAVID PINSOF, SEAN NELSON, MIKE LAVIGNE, JOS KNECHT, ERIK ENGMAN, LUCY, YHONATAN SHEMESH, MANVIR SINGH, PETRA WEIMANN, PEDRO BONILLA, CAROLA FEEST, AND STARRY!

A SPECIAL THANKS TO MY PRODUCERS, YZAR WEHBE, JIM FRANK, ŁUKASZ STAFINIAK, TOM VANEGDOM, BERNARD HUGUENEY, CURTIS DIXON, BENEDIKT MUELLER, THOMAS TRUMBLE, KATHRINE AND PATRICK TOBIN, JONCARLO MONTENEGRO, AL NICK ORTIZ, NICK GOLDEN, AND CHRISTINE GLASS!

AND TO MY EXECUTIVE PRODUCERS, MATTHEW LAVENDER, SERGIU CODREANU, BOGDAN KANIVETS, ROSEY, AND GREGORY HASTINGS!