The coup attempt in Russia exposed tensions within the regime and challenges in dealing with influential actors independent of the government.
Winning the peace for Ukraine requires joining the West through EU accession and a security guarantee.
Deep dives
The dilemma of the mercenary army and its impact on the Russian regime
The coup attempt in Russia led by Yevgeny Prigosian, a former caterer turned mercenary army leader, highlighted the growing influence of private militias in the country's power structure. Prigosian, who amassed a multi-billion dollar business through government contracts, refused to give up his enterprises when the Defense Ministry sought control. Believing his armed fighters could take over Moscow, Prigosian marched towards the capital with heavy weapons. However, his forces were eventually halted and he disappeared. The episode exposed the dilemma faced by President Putin, who relied on loyalists to maintain power but feared empowering decisive individuals who could potentially replace him. This event highlighted the tensions within the Russian regime and the challenges it faces in dealing with influential actors independent of the government.
The possible futures of Russia and the impact on Ukraine
Professor Stephen Kotkin discusses six potential future scenarios for Russia, each with varying implications for Ukraine's stability and peace. The first option is for Russia to follow a path similar to France, transitioning from an absolutist monarchy to a more stable liberal democracy. The second option is for Russia to have an authoritarian leader who no longer poses a threat to neighboring countries. The third option proposes a Chinese puppet regime in Russia, with China exerting control to counter Western influence. The fourth option suggests a North Korea-like situation, where Russia becomes isolated and focused on mischief and subversion. The fifth option is the fear of anarchy and collapse of the Russian state, posing potential challenges for Ukraine. Finally, the sixth option acknowledges that unforeseen events could shape Russia's future. While Ukraine aims to recapture its territory in the war with Russia, Professor Kotkin argues that winning the peace means Ukraine's integration into the Western community by joining the EU with a security guarantee that ensures stability.
American involvement and the situation on the ground in Ukraine
The United States has gradually escalated its support for Ukraine since Russia's invasion in 2022, providing various weapons systems to the Ukrainian forces. However, the Ukrainian counter-offensive has been slow in recapturing and reclaiming territory from Russian control. Despite the scale of American assistance and the strength of Western unity, the challenge lies in defining what victory means for Ukraine. Professor Kotkin contends that winning the peace for Ukraine entails joining the West through EU accession and a security guarantee. This transformation requires a comprehensive institutional overhaul and a reconstruction process that can absorb substantial financial aid. While the requirements are challenging, Professor Kotkin remains optimistic about the potential for the United States and its allies to creatively address the situation and communicate the importance of patriotism and American ideals to younger generations.
The importance of patriotism and the need for communication
Professor Kotkin acknowledges that patriotism has seen a decline among Americans, especially among the younger generation. However, he believes that the responsibility lies with society as a whole to communicate the significance of patriotism and the values associated with American institutions. Reflecting on historical challenges and triumphs, he argues that the United States has the capacity for diplomatic and political creativity to overcome obstacles. He emphasizes the importance of engaging with differing perspectives and engaging in conversations with those who may not share the same sense of patriotism. Professor Kotkin emphasizes the strength of American institutions that allow for self-reflection and the confronting of hypocrisy, while also recognizing the need to defend ideals and institutions against those who seek to undermine them. Despite media challenges and the polarization in society, he believes that with improved communication and a deepened understanding of history and institutions, American patriotism can be revitalized for future generations.
Stephen Kotkin is the Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and one of the foremost experts on Russia, past and present. Given the momentous series of events in that country over the past few weeks, we recruited Professor Kotkin to sit for another installment (this time in front of a live audience at Hoover) of our occasional Five Questions for Stephen Kotkin series. In this installment, Kotkin discusses the recent mutiny attempt by Wagner military group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin’s perhaps tenuous future, how the Ukrainian offensive might play out, and the future of the NATO alliance.
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