The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 364. Reading the Commercial Real Estate Room: Office Bifurcation, Retail Divergence, & SASB Reality Checks
Nov 21, 2025
The podcast dives into the recent division within the Fed and its potential impacts on commercial real estate. There's notable optimism in office lending, particularly for Class A assets, while B/C properties face significant challenges. Retail performance is also on the table, with discussions on contrasting earnings from Home Depot and Lowe's, and the implications of shifting consumer behaviors. Plus, insights into SASB office deals reveal interest shortfalls that could pose risks ahead. Expect updates on trading alerts and the evolving landscape for major office and retail assets.
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Divide In Fed Narrows Certainty
- The Fed is divided, widening the range of possible rate outcomes and making a single rate path unreliable for underwriting.
- Stephen Bushbaum says owners and lenders must underwrite multiple scenarios and avoid anchoring to one narrative.
Office Market Is Highly Bifurcated
- Office opportunity is concentrated in high-quality, well-located assets with leasing momentum while B/C commodity product faces structural multi-year risk.
- Stephen warns against treating office optimism as a uniform theme across property classes.
Underwrite Asset By Asset
- Do granular, asset-by-asset analysis across markets and capital stacks instead of relying on headlines or single data points.
- Stephen Bushbaum recommends using detailed data and models to assess dispersion and find opportunities.