Sinocism Live Sinocism Live: Council on Foreign Relations President Michael Froman on the US-China trade war
Oct 16, 2025
In this conversation, Michael Froman, former U.S. Trade Representative and president of the Council on Foreign Relations, dives into the complexities of the U.S.-China trade war. He evaluates the current state of relations and prospects for upcoming summits, shedding light on China's rare earths strategy and implications for global coalitions. Froman highlights the risks of economic over-reliance on China, the need for worker retraining amid economic dislocations, and the evolving rules of the international trade system shaped by both superpowers' industrial policies.
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Uncertain, Poorly Coordinated Bilateral Moment
- The U.S.-China relationship is at a moment of great uncertainty with mixed signals about leadership intent.
- Preparations lack coordination across economic and national security channels, risking unclear summit outcomes.
China's Rare Earths Move Risks Global Credibility
- China believes it has escalation dominance after rare earth export controls.
- That move risks harming China's global image as a defender of open trade.
Build Coalitions, Not Solo Responses
- Convene allies and partners to build coalitions around export controls and critical minerals.
- Use plurilateral agreements to create mechanisms and habits of cooperation before crises escalate.
