The Inconvenient Truth about Climate Science - Ep93: Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.
Jun 29, 2022
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Prof. Roger Pielke Jr., an expert in policy and governance related to science, technology, environment, innovation, and sports, discusses various topics including the tension between scenarios and forecasts in climate change, the Kaya Identity for understanding carbon emissions, hurricane impacts and policy responses, detecting climate change impacts on extreme events, concerns about the misuse of scenarios in climate science, and the ethics of climate change communication.
Climate risk is not a high priority for investors, given the greater impact of other factors in the financial industry.
Advancements in society and disaster preparedness have significantly reduced deaths from natural disasters, rather than changes in extreme events themselves.
Attribution science faces challenges in distinguishing the influence of climate change from natural variability and societal change in extreme events.
The climate discourse should focus on respectful dialogue, diverse perspectives, and scientific evidence rather than personal attacks.
Deep dives
The insignificance of climate risk in investing
Stuart Kirk, the head of responsible investing at HSBC, recently gave a presentation entitled 'Why investors need not worry about climate risk.' While his presentation garnered controversy, he made some valid points stating that investors do not need to prioritize climate risk. However, his delivery lacked nuance and was perceived as offensive, taking away from his important message. The overall conclusion is that climate risk is not a high priority for investors, given the greater impact of other factors in the financial industry.
The importance of societal change in disaster reductions
The last century has seen a significant reduction in deaths caused by natural disasters, due to advancements in society and disaster preparedness, rather than changes in extreme events themselves. Deaths resulting from weather-related disasters including floods, droughts, storms, wildfires, and extreme temperatures have decreased by more than 95%. This reduction is a remarkable achievement that often goes unnoticed. Blaming climate change alone for current damage and deaths caused by disaster overlooks the larger picture of societal change and improved resilience.
Discussions on attribution science and extreme events
Attribution science, which aims to assess the influence of climate change on specific extreme events, is a relatively new area of study. While some events like heatwaves and extreme precipitation have been attributed to climate change, others such as hurricanes, flooding, droughts, and tornadoes have not shown significant trends or detectable impacts. The challenge lies in distinguishing the influence of climate change from natural variability and societal change. The IPCC's conventional framework for detection and attribution is based on long-term statistical analysis rather than event-specific modeling.
Challenges and controversies in climate discourse
The climate discourse is often marked by controversy and divisions, resulting in name-calling and exclusionary tactics. Public figures, including scientists like Michael Mann and Roger Pielke Jr., have faced intense scrutiny and attacks for presenting their research findings. The polarization of opinions limits nuanced discussions on climate change and obstructs the genuine exchange of ideas. There is a need for more open dialogue that respects diverse perspectives and focuses on scientific evidence rather than personal attacks.
Misuse of Climate Pathways and Scenarios
The podcast episode discusses a paper by Roger Pelke Jr. and Justin Ritchie on the misuse of climate pathways and scenarios in climate science research and assessments. They argue that scenarios, particularly RCP 8.5, have been misused for more than a decade, treating extreme scenarios as the most likely future and making illogical comparisons across inconsistent global development trajectories. They highlight the need for transparency, independence, and plausibility in scenario selection and stress testing. The episode delves into the implications of this misuse in climate policy, decision-making, and financial stress tests.
Issues with RCP 8.5 and Plausibility
The podcast addresses concerns around RCP 8.5, an extreme scenario widely used in climate science research. The guest, Roger Pelke Jr., explains that RCP 8.5 was initially identified as a reference scenario, but it has become increasingly recognized as wildly implausible. He emphasizes the need for more attention to scenario plausibility and argues that RCP 8.5 and other implausible scenarios hinder effective policy discussions. He also calls for a new approach to assessments that focuses on net zero targets and policy discussions rather than relying on outdated scenarios.
The Implications of Misusing Scenarios
The podcast explores the implications of misusing climate scenarios in the scientific community and policy-making. It highlights issues with stress tests conducted by central banks, which often rely on implausible scenarios. The guest emphasizes the importance of scientific integrity, transparency, and independence in scenario selection and stress testing. The conversation delves into the need for ongoing public trust in climate science and the potential risks of politicizing science. It concludes by urging for open and honest discussions, even when course corrections are needed to maintain trust and credibility.
Roger Pielke, Jr. has been on the faculty of the University of Colorado Boulder since 2001, where he teaches and writes on a diverse range of policy and governance issues related to science, technology, environment, innovation and sports. Roger is a professor in the Environmental Studies Program. Roger is currently focusing his research on a NSF-sponsored, 16-country evaluation of science advice in the COVID-19 pandemic.
Roger holds degrees in mathematics, public policy and political science, all from the University of Colorado. In 2012 Roger was awarded an honorary doctorate from Linköping University in Sweden and was also awarded the Public Service Award of the Geological Society of America. In 2006, Roger received the Eduard Brückner Prize in Munich, Germany in 2006 for outstanding achievement in interdisciplinary climate research.
Roger has been a Distinguished Fellow of the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan since 2016. From 2019 he has served as a science and economics adviser to Environmental Progress. Roger was a Fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences from 2001 to 2016. He served as a Senior Fellow of The Breakthrough Institute from 2008 to 2018. In 2007 Roger served as a James Martin Fellow at Oxford University’s Said Business School. Before joining the faculty of the University of Colorado, from 1993 to 2001 Roger was a Scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
At the University of Colorado, Roger founded and directed both the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research and the Sports Governance Center. He also created and led the university’s Graduate Certificate Program in Science and Technology Policy, which has seen its graduates move on to faculty positions, Congressional staff, presidential political appointees and in positions in business and civil society.
His books include Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society (with R. Pielke Sr., 1997, John Wiley, full text free as PDF), Prediction: Science, Decision Making and the Future of Nature (with D. Sarewitz and R. Byerly, 2001, Island Press), The Honest Broker: Making Sense of Science in Policy and Politics published by Cambridge University Press (2007), The Climate Fix: What Scientists and Politicians Won’t Tell you About Global Warming (2010, Basic Books). Presidential Science Advisors: Reflections on Science, Policy and Politics (with R. Klein, 2011, Springer), and The Edge: The War Against Cheating and Corruption in the Cutthroat World of Elite Sports (Roaring Forties Press, 2016). His most recent book is The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters and Climate Change (2nd edition, 2018, Consortium for Science, Policy & Outcomes).
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