Eurodollar University Ok, Now It's Official...The Sh*t Is Hitting The Fan
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Jan 4, 2026 The discussion dives deep into troubling signs for the economy, highlighting a notable bull steepening on the Treasury curve and falling gasoline prices. Concerns grow as economists warn we're on the brink of recession due to negative payrolls and weak consumer demand. There's analysis on the oil futures market, revealing contango implications and risks of a global downturn. Additionally, rising inventories and falling orders point to a significant production slowdown, indicating the economy's momentum is fading despite positive GDP headlines.
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GDP Versus Market Reality
- The U.S. economy shows broad loss of momentum despite a strong third-quarter GDP print.
- Markets and many data series treat the 4% GDP as overstated or old news rather than proof of strength.
Gasoline Falls Against Seasonal Trend
- Wholesale gasoline should seasonally rise in winter but instead hit new lows, signaling weak demand.
- Falling gasoline and diesel use supports the view that demand weakness, not supply, is driving energy prices down.
Job Losses Drive Reassessment
- Negative payrolls triggered a broad reevaluation by credit providers and economists.
- Job losses matter more for demand than headline GDP and force reassessment across credit markets.