Retired Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, a former National Security Council director for Europe and author of 'The Folly of Realism,' shares insights on U.S.-Russia relations and Ukraine's struggles. He critiques past U.S. administrations' transactional policies toward Ukraine and examines the repercussions of Russia's treaty violations. Vindman discusses the damaging effects of the Trump era on American alliances and the erosion of national security expertise. He also highlights the resilience of Ukraine amidst misreported war dynamics.
The U.S. has historically prioritized its relationship with Russia over supporting Ukraine, undermining Ukraine's sovereignty and agency.
Realism in U.S. foreign policy often miscalculated threats, hindering effective assistance to Ukraine during critical moments of conflict.
Deep dives
Historical Context of U.S.-Ukraine Relations
The relationship between the U.S. and Ukraine has been characterized by a transactional nature, subordinating Ukraine's needs to those of U.S.-Russia relations throughout history. This dynamic has roots in the post-Soviet era where U.S. policymakers often ignored Ukraine's agency, treating it as an extension of Russian influence rather than a sovereign nation. The complexities of Ukraine's political landscape, including persistent corruption and governance issues, further complicated the U.S. response to their struggles. As historical precedents were often overlooked, significant opportunities for meaningful support during pivotal moments, such as the Orange Revolution, were missed due to the overriding focus on maintaining a relationship with Russia.
The Impact of Realism in U.S. Foreign Policy
Realism as a guiding principle in U.S. foreign policy has often led to a miscalculation of threats and opportunities, particularly regarding Russia and Ukraine. Policymakers prioritized a fear of provoking Russia over acknowledging the ambitions of Ukrainian sovereignty and the need for solid support during crises. Important moments in the early 2000s, including the reactions to Ukraine's Western pivot, were overshadowed by a desire to maintain favorable relations with Russia. This pattern of prioritizing Russia ultimately hindered U.S. efforts to support Ukraine effectively as it sought to define its national identity and political trajectory.
Consequences of Ignoring Ukraine's Sovereignty
The longstanding belief that Ukraine is a lesser entity compared to Russia contributed significantly to the mismanagement of U.S.-Ukrainian relations. This perspective diminished the recognition of Ukraine's historical struggles for independence, complicating U.S. diplomatic efforts. Failing to appreciate Ukraine's national identity led to obstacles in supporting its political reforms and aspirations. By treating Ukraine as an adjunct to Russian interests, the U.S. missed critical opportunities to empower the country and bolster its defenses against Russian aggression.
The Evolving Dynamics of U.S. Support for Ukraine
The current geopolitical landscape is increasingly influencing U.S. engagement with Ukraine, raising concerns about potential shifts in support due to evolving political tensions. Individuals like Trump and his administration demonstrate a conflicting stance that could undermine bipartisan efforts to assist Ukraine amidst ongoing conflict with Russia. As Ukraine continues to stand firm against aggression, its resilience is likely to catalyze deeper Western support, but challenges remain tied to the unpredictability of U.S. leadership. The complex relationship underscores the necessity for a coherent and steady foreign policy that prioritizes Ukraine's sovereignty beyond the fluctuating interests of superpowers.
Eric and Eliot welcome Lt. Col. (ret.) Alexander Vindman, former director for Europe on the National Security Council during the first Trump term and author of The Folly of Realism: How the West Deceived Itself about Russia and Betrayed Ukraine (New York: Public Affairs Press, 2025). They discuss the U.S. government's prioritization of US-Russia relations over Ukraine policy across multiple Administrations and the tendency towards a transactional relationship with Ukraine as well as the degree of agency and responsibility of Ukrainian officials for this chronic state of affairs. They touch on the Obama Administration's underwhelming response to the seizure of Crimea and destabilization of Ukraine in 2014 as well as Trump's vulgar transactionalism and personal grudge against Zelensky as a motivation for the Oval Office meltdown two weeks ago. Eric and Eliot also discuss their respective articles in the Dispatch and the Atlantic on Russia's habit of violating agreements it has reached and Ukraine's success in fighting a war of attrition against Russia despite the media's misreporting of the state of the war. They also discuss the generational damage to American alliances and national security intellectual capital that the second Trump term is creating, Trump hostage envoy Adam Boehler's direct negotiation with Hamas terrorists, Trump's mistaken reference to Viktor Orban as the leader of Turkey, and Elon Musk and Marco Rubio's trashing of Poland's Foreign Minister on Twitter.
The Folly of Realism: How the West Deceived Itself About Russia and Betrayed Ukraine: https://a.co/d/dTa2qN8
