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Goldman Sachs Exchanges
A skeptical look at AI investment
Jul 16, 2024
MIT economist Daron Acemoglu and AI investment expert Jim Covello discuss the skepticism around AI investment. They explore the challenges of scaling AI models, the potential of AI superintelligence, and the impact on job creation. The podcast also covers the need for realistic expectations in AI investments and the importance of tangible applications for investors.
28:27
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Quick takeaways
- Generative AI could boost US productivity by 9% and GDP growth by 6.1% over the next decade, but concerns exist about its cost-effectiveness and lack of 'killer applications'.
- AI investments totaling $1 trillion may face challenges regarding wasteful spending and the uncertainty of achieving significant technological breakthroughs.
Deep dives
The Potential Impact of Generative AI on Work Tasks and US Productivity
Generative AI is projected to potentially automate a quarter of work tasks, boosting US productivity by 9% and US GDP growth by 6.1% over the next decade. Despite the optimism surrounding this technology, concerns exist about its cost-effectiveness and lack of identified 'killer applications'. Skeptics, like Darren Asamoglu from MIT, estimate a more conservative impact on work tasks, productivity, and GDP, emphasizing the complexity of tasks impacted by AI.
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