Decoding Geopolitics Podcast
#53 Michael Beckley: China’s Rise Is Over. Things Are Gonna Get A Lot Worse - Fast
Mar 5, 2025
In this insightful discussion, Michael Beckley, a Tufts University professor and co-author of 'The Danger Zone', explores the end of China's economic ascent and its implications for global politics. He predicts significant instability as Beijing's economic model collapses, making military aggression, particularly towards Taiwan, more likely. The conversation delves into the challenges of interpreting China's economic data and draws historical parallels to past declining powers, providing a compelling analysis of the evolving geopolitical landscape.
34:08
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Quick takeaways
- China's economic model is nearing its limits, transitioning from rapid growth to stagnation due to various internal pressures.
- Economic decline historically leads nations to adopt aggressive foreign policies, with China potentially increasing militarization and confrontational tactics towards Taiwan.
Deep dives
The Predictions of Economic Challenges
China's economic rise is predicted to be nearing its end due to various factors diminishing the growth environment. Historically favorable conditions like demographic dividends, resource abundance, and progressive leadership are becoming less tenable, leading to slowed growth rates. The data suggests that China's growth has markedly decreased from double digits to approximately 5% or less, with some studies indicating it could be as low as 0-2%. This stagnation is further compounded by significant debt burdens, reduced productivity, and a transition away from a rapidly growing economy, indicating that China's economic model is nearing its limits.
