Ethan Kurzweil on Venture Investing in the Post-ZIRP, AI Era
Dec 6, 2024
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Ethan Kurzweil, founder of Chemistry VC, brings his extensive background from Bessemer Venture Partners to discuss the shifted venture capital landscape. He delves into the unique challenges present post-ZIRP, particularly in AI and tech investments. Kurzweil shares insights on why his new fund emphasizes personal relationships and early-stage opportunities. He explores the competitive dynamics of AI, the balance between proprietary and open-source innovations, and the future of tech amidst emerging regulations. Exciting times lie ahead for venture investing!
The venture capital landscape has shifted towards a more cautious approach, moving from abundant funding to a focus on early-stage investments due to past misalignments.
AI's rise has fundamentally changed tech evaluations, necessitating a shift in how investors assess product potential and market impact amid heightened skepticism.
New firms like Chemistry VC aim to provide hands-on investment services, addressing unique dynamics of early-stage investing and seeking sustainable returns in the current climate.
Deep dives
Wells Fargo's Community Impact Initiatives
Wells Fargo focuses on fostering sustainable and inclusive futures in communities by prioritizing housing affordability, small business growth, and financial health. The company has significantly contributed to local development, donating nearly $2 billion over the last five years to support these community needs. This commitment reflects a broader strategy to strengthen ties within communities while ensuring that essential services and opportunities are accessible to all. Such investments underline the importance of corporate responsibility in enhancing societal well-being and economic growth.
Shifts in Venture Capital Landscape
The venture capital landscape has evolved considerably since 2014, moving from an era of abundant funding to a more measured approach driven by experiences from the past. Many investors acknowledge the overwhelming influx of capital in previous years led to misalignments between venture managers and founders. The introduction of new firms, like Chemistry VC, aims to bring personal, hands-on investment services back to venture capital. Such firms strive to identify and support companies at crucial growth moments, addressing the unique dynamics of early-stage investing in today's market.
The Role of AI in Software Investment
AI has radically transformed how tech companies are evaluated, shifting from skepticism around founders to excitement over potential product efficacy. Entrepreneurs can now promise capabilities that were once deemed impossible, such as automated coding, drastically altering investment discussions. Despite this excitement, evaluating the actual market impact remains pivotal, as teams must ensure that the technology meets consumer needs convincingly. Thus, while AI enables promising advancements, conventional due diligence continues to be critical, focusing on business practicality and user satisfaction.
Fundraising Dynamics in Today's VC Environment
The experience of fundraising in the current VC climate differs significantly from previous years due to heightened scrutiny and skepticism regarding market viability. New firms like Chemistry VC face challenges as potential investors question their track records while assessing the overall underperformance of the venture capital asset class. The focus for new funds is often on early-stage investments that have historically yielded better returns, steering away from late-stage opportunities that may inflate risk. By isolating this early-stage focus, new VC firms hope to align with a more optimistic view towards sustainable returns despite current market uncertainties.
Evaluating Market Opportunities in AI and Beyond
The evaluation of AI companies presents both new opportunities and challenges; while the potential impact is exciting, it raises questions about differentiation in a crowded market. Investors must dissect how emerging technologies genuinely improve user experiences and address market needs, rather than just accepting broad claims of AI capability. In doing so, the focus shifts to understanding the underlying business models and whether they can sustainably generate revenue. This emphasis on user impact and business effectiveness can guide investors in selecting companies that will thrive in a competitive technology landscape.
In the 2010s, we saw an incredible boom in the venture capital space, fueled in part by cheap capital as well as cheap compute. Fast forward to today, and many things look very different. We're not in the ZIRP era anymore. And computing power has become a scarce resource, particularly when it comes to AI. So how do things look different today from the perspective of a veteran venture capitalist? In this episode, recorded live in San Francisco in November, we speak to Ethan Kurzweil, a founder and managing partner at the new VC firm Chemistry. Ethan spent years at Bessemer Venture Partners, where he was involved in numerous software deals. He talks to us about his strategy for the new fund, the case for starting a small firm, what technologies excite him most right now, and the general landscape for seed-stage investing.
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