M&A Deals Halted, 2025 Deals Still On, & Gauging the Tariff Pinch 12/11/24
Dec 11, 2024
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Mitchell Green, founding partner at Lead Edge Capital, shares insights on halted M&A deals, including significant grocery and steel mergers. He discusses why 2025 will still see public market deal-making despite a slow IPO year, as many top companies have already secured funding. The conversation also touches on the impact of President-elect Trump's tariff strategies on the supply chain, raising concerns about consumer prices and international trade challenges. Gene Seroka adds depth by exploring automation in port operations and its effects on communities.
The blocking of significant mergers, such as Kroger and Albertsons, highlights intensifying regulatory scrutiny in the U.S. grocery sector.
Future IPO activity is expected to be limited as many companies have already secured capital, complicating the venture capital landscape for 2025.
Deep dives
Kroger-Albertsons Merger Blocked
A Federal judge has blocked Kroger's proposed $24.6 billion acquisition of Albertsons, siding with the FTC's concern that the merger would reduce competition in the grocery sector. The FTC argued that the merger violates antitrust laws and that merely divesting hundreds of stores would not sufficiently mitigate the competitive harm. Kroger and Albertsons are currently reviewing their next steps in light of the ruling. Critics have pointed out that grocery competition actually lies more with giants like Walmart and Amazon, which poses its own challenges amidst rising food costs.
National Security and Foreign Investments
President Biden is expected to block the $14 billion sale of U.S. Steel to Japan's Nippon Steel, a move likely driven by national security concerns. This decision, coordinated by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS), highlights ongoing tensions regarding foreign ownership of strategic American assets. Discussions around whether steel production poses a national security threat have surfaced, underscoring broader anxieties about globalization and national interests. The decision may set a precedent for how future foreign investments in critical industries are evaluated.
The IPO Landscape in 2025
The venture capital landscape suggests that many successful companies have already effectively undergone IPOs by raising substantial capital in previous years, meaning fewer traditional IPOs may materialize in the near future. Mitchell Green highlights that while nine out of ten recent tech IPOs traded above their initial prices, this does not guarantee a blockbuster year for public offerings in 2025. Many companies are grappling with varying margins and financial performance, creating a complicated environment for new public listings. The expectation is that companies with solid fundamentals will continue to thrive, while others may struggle, raising concerns about the emergence of so-called 'zombie' companies.
Tariff Implications for Supply Chains
The potential implementation of tariffs under President-elect Trump's administration raises concerns for various sectors, including the tequila industry, which relies heavily on imports from Mexico. Executives at the Port of Los Angeles described how businesses are proactively front-loading inventories to minimize the financial impact of potential tariffs. With ongoing discussions around supply chain adjustments, both economists and supply chain leaders emphasize the importance of strategic planning to navigate these uncertainties. Robotics and automation are slated as key areas of transformation in the industry, though they raise concerns about their impact on the workforce.
Two major corporate deals withered on Tuesday. A judge blocked the pending $25 billion merger of grocery chains Kroger and Albertsons, and President Biden reportedly plans to block U.S. Steel’s $14.1 billion sale to Nippon Steel. Dealmaking on public markets will continue in 2025, according to Lead Edge Capital founding partner Mitchell Green. The Alibaba, Uber, and Spotify backer discusses the IPO window as we wind down 2024. His rationale for a slow year for market debuts: many of the best companies raised enough capital in 2021 and 2022 to hold off on an IPO. Plus, Port of Los Angeles executive director Gene Seroka discusses the potential impact of President-elect Trump’s tariff plans on the supply chain and consumer prices.