unSILOed with Greg LaBlanc

559. Modeling Persuasion and Connectivity: From Pandemics to Finance feat. Adam Kucharski

Jun 27, 2025
Adam Kucharski, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, shares insights on the evolving nature of 'proof' in various fields, from mathematics to medicine. He discusses how simulation and probabilistic approaches have gained acceptance, especially highlighted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Adam connects principles of epidemiology to finance and marketing, revealing how contagion theories influence decision-making in multiple domains. The conversation also touches on the ethical dilemmas of data use, cybersecurity, and the vulnerabilities in centralized digital infrastructures.
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INSIGHT

Proof Varies Across Fields

  • Proof varies significantly across fields like math, law, and medicine due to differing needs for certainty.
  • Even mathematics, considered most certain, has evolved from universal truths to assumptions dependent on context.
ADVICE

Make Decisions Despite Uncertainty

  • Decisions must be made even with weak evidence; inaction is a choice with consequences.
  • Consider both the strength of evidence and the business or policy costs when deciding.
INSIGHT

Science vs. Policy Tension

  • Policymakers often need quicker, imperfect scientific answers rather than waiting for full certainty.
  • Demanding high certainty can bias toward inaction, which itself carries risks.
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