Top Traders Unplugged

SI227: Trend Following in an Uncertain World ft. Richard Brennan

Jan 21, 2023

01:25:03

Creator website

Episode guests

Richard Brennan

Highlights

AI Chapters

Episode notes

Building a Robust Portfolio for the Future

01:20

How to Achieve Maximum Asymmetry in Your Portfolio

01:24

The Entropy of Transition Events

01:27

The Dynamic Nature of Space and Time

01:12

Introduction

2min

What Are Your Thoughts on What You've Heard So Far?

3min

Is There Diversification Within Trend Following?

4min

The Battleship Is Still Floating

3min

A Few Questions From Our Loyal Community

5min

What Are the Major Takeaways From This Process?

2min

The Inconsistency in the Selection Process of Trend Following Instruments

3min

The Professor Tag and the Back Test

3min

How Do I Get This Linearity From a Back Test?

3min

10.

How Long Will You Cut Your Losses?

4min

11.

The Inevitability of Uncertainty in the Financial Markets

6min

12.

Hunting for Outliers

4min

13.

What Is a Tailhunter?

4min

14.

Is the Application of the Mathematics to the Real World?

3min

15.

The Difference Between the Reality and the Statistics Is Uncertainty

2min

16.

The Biggest Change of All

4min

17.

The Major Change of the Transition Events Creates Significant Opportunity

3min

18.

The Outliers of Liquid Markets

3min

19.

Uncertainty Is an Entropic Condition

4min

20.

Is There a Mathematical Tool for Complex Adaptive Systems?

5min

21.

The Process That Is Important

4min

22.

The Convergent Trader - Risk of Variation About Uncertainty

5min

23.

What Is Theoretical Entropy?

5min

24.

The CTA Podcast - Is This Really a Good Podcast?

3min

Richard Brennan joins us for a weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the new TopTradersUnplugged mini series and how the beginning of 2023 has been so far. We also take questions from listeners regarding backtesting methods and how Richard uses backtesting to manage risk, rather than predict expected returns. Additionally, we discuss why trend followers should be more aware of uncertainty and outliers, why Richard is a tail hunter and why he compares it to surfing, how Richard deals with change and the importance of understanding the natural cycle of transitions and stable regimes, complex adaptive systems, why everything ultimately moves towards an equilibrium condition where everything stops and how it can be corrected through math, the importance of understanding how a system operates before applying math and that everything is process driven, how Richard thinks of risk in an uncertain world and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:34 - Thoughts on new mini series

09:46 - Battleship still floating?

11:56 - Q1, Markus: Richard's biggest takeaways in his backtesting

18:12 - Q2, Tim: About inconsistencies in the selection process

31:27 - Uncertainty rather than certainty

49:38 - Why not focus on other trends?

56:44 - Outliers - features of liquid markets?

01:03:28 - Everything is a process

01:12:21 - Managing risk in an uncertain world

01:21:24 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer