Best of the Spectator Americano: which Latin American narco-state will Trump topple next?
Jan 8, 2026
Freddy Gray chats with Joshua Trevino, a political analyst and Chief Transformation Officer at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, who dives into the intricacies of Latin American narco-states. They explore how U.S. withdrawal paved the way for cartels and discuss potential military targets, including Mexico and Cuba. Trevino highlights Marco Rubio's influence, the resilience of Colombia's civil society, and the historical lessons of U.S. interventions. The conversation also touches on the geopolitical implications of China's rising presence in the region.
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State–Cartel Synthesis Explained
- Narco-states are a synthesis of leftist autocracies partnering with criminal cartels to run territory and governance.
- That state-cartel partnership makes them uniquely dangerous and requires military power, not just law enforcement or diplomacy.
Guerrillas Turned Parastate Actors
- Guerrilla groups like the FARC and ELN shifted from insurgency to drug trafficking to fund themselves and then to governing territories.
- Joshua Trevino notes these groups evolved into parastate actors with taxation, politics, and control over regions.
Mexico Requires Strategic Change
- Mexico is complex because cartels have embedded ties with political actors and parts of the security apparatus.
- Tactical arrests matter but strategic regime change is needed to break cartel-state networks, Joshua Trevino argues.