Global Data Pod Global Data Watch Weekender: The more things change…
22 snips
Jan 16, 2026 Consumer spending shows resilience, but hiring is crucial for sustaining growth. Recent U.S. policies may be a double-edged sword, potentially disrupting confidence. Tariffs continue to cloud inflation forecasts, raising the stakes for 2026. The hosts debate whether current measures are genuinely pro-growth or just political noise. With shifting recession risks and inflation signals, the Fed's independence and future actions hang in the balance as they monitor early indicators of economic activity.
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Policy Noise vs. Last Year's Disruption
- Bruce Kasman argues current policy noise is less likely to disrupt confidence than last year's disruptive policies.
- He sees proposed growth-supporting measures as mostly noise because many lack feasibility or congressional support.
Lingering Effects Of Past Policies
- Joseph Lupton warns earlier policies weren't accidental and had lasting disruptive effects on business sentiment.
- He emphasizes immigration, trade and government disruptions still weigh on firms and hiring.
Sentiment-Led Weakness In Business Activity
- Bruce says business spending, non-tech capex and hiring were weak in 2025 due to a sentiment shock.
- He sees signs sentiment is reversing, but hiring hasn't yet recovered through December.