HousingWire Daily Jobless claims send mortgage rates to new low
14 snips
Sep 12, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst renowned for his deep insights into housing markets and economic trends, joins Sarah Wheeler to discuss the surprising drop in mortgage rates. They explore how recent CPI reports and jobless claims are reshaping the economic landscape, suggesting that strong labor market metrics may drive mortgage rates lower. The conversation also touches on the urgency for homebuyers and real estate professionals in a fast-changing market, as well as the implications of Federal Reserve decisions on future lending conditions.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Labor Trumped Inflation Today
- Bond traders prioritized weak jobless claims over slightly hotter CPI and pushed yields down sharply today.
- That labor-over-inflation reaction drove mortgage rates to a 2025 low despite inflation remaining above target.
Bonds Lead, Fed Follows
- The bond market often moves ahead of the Fed and prices in weakness before policy changes occur.
- That dynamic means mortgage rates can fall even when the Fed hasn't cut or signaled neutral policy yet.
Spreads Matter As Much As Yields
- Mortgage spreads are currently tighter than last year, so mortgage rates can be higher or lower independent of the 10-year yield.
- Better spreads helped push mortgage rates lower even when bond yields were similar to past levels.