The Best Ever CRE Show JF 4042: Employment Revisions, Migration Slowdown and Multifamily Absorption with John Chang
Sep 28, 2025
John Chang, head of research at Markston Millichap, dives into multifamily market trends and shifts in migration. He sheds light on the impact of August’s employment revisions on housing demand, particularly in high-construction Sun Belt areas. Chang discusses how slowing migration may affect absorption rates and emphasizes the rising significance of lease renewals over new leases. He presents a balanced outlook, predicting stability in cap rates and a potential rebound for select Sun Belt markets after excess supply is addressed.
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Data Lag Undermines Real-Time Forecasting
- Housing-data is lagging and many key series are a year old, making current forecasting difficult.
- John Chang warns that backward-looking metrics lose usefulness during rapid market shifts.
Employment Revisions Changed The Outlook
- The August employment revisions turned recent job growth from modestly positive to materially weaker.
- Chang sees that slower hiring and higher unemployment will reduce demand momentum for housing.
Slowing Migration Is A Quiet Demand Headwind
- International immigration and domestic migration are both slowing, which reduces net housing demand.
- Chang expects some metros to be hit harder due to their reliance on in-migration.