Fixed Income Conversation Corner with Robert Cohen (DoubleLine) and Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO)
Sep 22, 2023
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Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO) and Robert Cohen (DoubleLine) discuss the current landscape for fixed income investors, opportunities in the asset class, yield curve inversion, and the current state of credit markets. They also highlight the benefits in the corporate credit curve and staying short and up in quality.
Fixed income investments now offer better yields compared to a few years ago, creating a favorable opportunity for investors.
The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious approach, prioritizing economic stability amidst uncertainty and potential inflation.
Deep dives
Opportunities in Fixed Income
Fixed income investments now offer better yields compared to a few years ago, with opportunities to generate income across all fixed income sectors. For example, triple B investment grade credit now yields 6%, equivalent to what high yield triple C credit used to yield. This improved entry point into fixed income creates a favorable opportunity for investors. Additionally, there is a trend of borrowers in the fixed income market moving towards deleveraging, resulting in lower issuance and a focus on defending balance sheets. This combination of higher yields and potential for lower issuance makes fixed income an attractive option.
The Path of the Fed and Interest Rates
With uncertainty still surrounding inflation and economic conditions, the Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a cautious approach and maintain its foot on the brake. While there may be debates on whether the Fed will hike rates or not, it is expected to remain data-dependent. The current environment of elevated inflation, labor pressure, and potential strikes suggests the Fed will prioritize economic stability even if it means a slower rate of rate cuts. This cautious stance by the Fed and the likelihood of elevated inflation and higher rates suggest that bond markets will continue to see rapid movement and investors should remain agile.
Risk and Return in Corporate Credit
The corporate credit market is experiencing dispersion, with high-quality companies that have strong balance sheets and generate free cash flow being favored. However, lower-quality companies that struggle with their debt load are likely to face downgrades and increased defaults. While corporate credit markets have tightened, the potential for spread widening still exists, particularly in high yield credit. Investors may need to reposition their portfolios, favoring higher-quality investments in corporate credit and securitized assets. In securitized markets, there are opportunities in areas such as Triple-A rated CLOs and CMBS bonds, which offer attractive yields while providing potential repayment in the event of defaults.
Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also discuss the road ahead for monetary policy, the economy and credit markets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Robert Cohen, Global Head of Developed Credit, DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy
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