David Sanger, White House correspondent, discusses America's new Cold Wars with a focus on geopolitical rivalry, Russian interference, China's influence, semiconductor self-sufficiency, AI safety, nuclear arms limitation, and navigating relationships with Russia and China.
The new Cold Wars era involves complex geopolitical rivalries with major nuclear powers like Russia and China forming opposing groups.
The post-Cold War optimism of improved US-Russia relations contrasted sharply with Putin's assertive actions and strained relations with the West.
The US faces strategic challenges in balancing competition with China and Russia, navigating complexities in foreign policy and great power dynamics.
Deep dives
The Shift to America's New Cold Wars
The onset of America's new cold war era marks a significant shift from the simplicity of the US-USSR nuclear contest in the old Cold War, as described by David Sanger. The new era involves a complex landscape with major nuclear powers such as Russia and China, alongside other authoritarian states forming opposing groups. The US-led Western group, including NATO allies, faces off against the China-Russia-Iran axis, leading to a more intricate geopolitical atmosphere. Unlike the predictability of the old Cold War, the new era presents interdependencies in areas like technology, complicating strategies like containment.
Post-Cold War Optimism and Reality
The post-Cold War optimism of building a better relationship with Russia, including discussions of potential EU and NATO membership for Russia, contrasted sharply with the reality that unfolded under Putin. The collapse of the Soviet Union led to hopes for democratization and cooperation, with scenes like the Bush-Putin meeting exuding warmth and cooperation. However, Putin's Munich Security Conference declaration in 2007 signaled a shift towards a more assertive Russia, setting the stage for the annexation of Crimea and strained relations with the West, deviating from the expected trajectory of peaceful collaboration.
Analyzing The US Approach to Geopolitical Competition
The US faces strategic challenges in navigating its relationships with China and Russia in the context of the new Cold Wars. While the Biden administration has prioritized competition with China in its foreign policy, attempts at stabilizing relations with Russia have faced complexities. The administration's handling of the withdrawal from Afghanistan raised concerns about perceptions of weakness and commitment towards adversaries, potentially influencing the dynamics of great power competition. The divergent approaches towards China and Russia underscore the evolving landscape of geopolitical strategies and priorities.
Navigating Cyber Frontiers and Nuclear Arms Control
David Sanger highlights the critical role of cyber capabilities in the evolving Cold Wars, emphasizing the interconnected and disruptive nature of cyber warfare. The cyber domain presents new challenges and opportunities for global powers, reflecting the shift from traditional military confrontations. Additionally, concerns loom over the impending expiration of the New START treaty in 2026, raising uncertainties about nuclear arms control and the risks of an arms race in a context of heightened tensions.
The Imperative of US Policy Responses in Addressing Great Power Rivalries
The US confronts the intricate task of managing concurrent cold wars with China and Russia, while seeking to prevent their burgeoning collaboration. Challenges arise in designing effective containment policies that prevent Russia and China from aligning against US interests. Amid cyber vulnerabilities and nuclear threats, there are opportunities for leveraging shared concerns, such as Russia's space weapon initiatives, to engage China in cooperative efforts. Strategic diplomacy and nuanced approaches are essential in navigating the complexities of modern great power competition.
David Sanger, the White House and national security correspondent for the New York Times, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss how the post-Cold War ended and why the new era of geopolitical rivalry began.
